Monday, August 31, 2009

Baker Hughes: A Special Situation

I haven't executed a special situation play for a while, but today's announced purchase of BJ Services (what a name!) by Baker Hughes provides a great opportunity:

Oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc said on Monday it would buy peer BJ Services Co for $5.5 billion to broaden its product line and take on the industry's giants.


The price of BHI sunk by almost 7% in early trading. I believe the market is freaked out about the possibility that BHI is overestimating its ability to integrate the two companies and won't be able to realize its projected cost savings.

My play: I sold uncovered calls on BHI at 39 that expire this month. This limits my risk and any temptation I may feel to be more greedy. This buyout is not a done deal because the shareholders of both firms must still vote to accept it. Some other suitor could always come along and try to bid for BJS, so I'm not touching that side of the deal.

More Gold Options For The Alpha-D

I hold gold in my IRA. I haven't written any call options against them for a while but that has just changed. Today I sold covered calls against my IRA holdings of IAU and GDX. I sold them OTM but close enough to the current market price to make a decent premium. Having them sold away will not be very problematic as the gains won't be taxable, and if needed I can repurchase them without regard to the wash sale rule. IRAs are great for that.

Hopefully they won't be sold away. I have the gold hedge to preserve my IRA's buying power.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

The Haiku of Finance for 08/29/09

Bankers in trouble
Loss reserves inadequate
Time to shut them down

Friday, August 28, 2009

Consumer Spending Head Fake Fools Market

The supposed restoration of the American consumer to his throne was a fluke driven by Cash For Clunkers, as noted here:

Auto dealers benefited from the Obama administration’s incentive plan, which ended this month, while retailers such as Kohl’s Corp. and J.C. Penney Co. struggled to lure customers shaken by mounting job losses. Spending gains aren’t likely to be sustained as incomes stagnate and households pay down debt, casting doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.


Despite the distortion of the auto subsidy spike, investors have still bid up stock prices at the behest of Wall Street. This market is levitating on the basis of pulled-forward automotive purchases that weaken both future car sales and current retail spending. Investors, be warned . . . you're betting on nothing.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

More Banks On Brink Will Drive FDIC and Treasury To "Plan C"

Green shoots, eh? Check out how many more banks are going to collapse:

The number of problem U.S. banks and thrifts on an official watchlist rose sharply to 416 in the second quarter of 2009 from 305 in the prior quarter, as the industry recorded a $3.7 billion loss.


I recently posted my guess that the FDIC's activation of its Treasury line of credit would push the U.S. government further toward a failed bond auction. The near future will reveal whether I'm correct. Of course, the Treasury can always force its primary dealers to buy bonds if they're convinced the Fed will keep funding the loan facilities that make those purchases possible. This must be Treasury's much-discussed "Plan C" to save the nation from the next phase of its slow-motion financial collapse. That means inflation. That's why I own gold.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A Primer On Financial Career Archetypes

Careers in finance are fun and rewarding. If you want to win you have to arrive prepared and ready to roll. The specific type of job doesn't matter. You can be a banker, broker, analyst, manager, whatever, but in general you need to have "what it takes." Let's discuss the most common types of employee you'll find nowadays on Wall Street.

Here are three main types of people drawn to careers in financial services.
Type 1: The Angel. The conscientious, hardworking, intelligent person who insists on taking care of the client and delivering the highest quality service. This person is scrupulously honest and insists on strict adherence to laws, regulations, and the highest standards of ethical behavior.
Type 2: The Predator. The lying, thieving, conniving, backstabbing, manipulative, egotistical jerk. This person would sell their own mother down the river for a fast buck and epitomizes the "I'll be gone, you'll be gone" (IBG/YBG) absence of concern for the long-term effects of their actions on the health of clients and the industry.
Type 3: The Preppie. The spoiled, airheaded, condescending trust-fund baby who had their high six-figure first job handed to them after sleeping their way through four years in the Ivy League. This person is amused at anyone who has to work hard for a living as such things are so declasse for someone at their level.

Now that we've identified the three types of people you're most likely to meet in your Wall Street career, let's discuss their typical career paths.

Angels are immediately identified for eventual termination. They are given plenty of grunt work to keep them busy, the results of which will always be claimed by the other two types. They are widely viewed as weak and unfit for employment in finance, and will never earn anyone's respect with the way they do their jobs. Their honesty and devotion to detail quickly prove to be career liabilities because they pose a threat to the chicanery of their managers.

Predators are initially successful based on their ability to lie, bluff, and bully their way around clients and the office. The more successful ones will ally with a Preppie to network their way up the ladder and gang up on Angels for fun. They predominate in sales but can also be found in management if they can ride the coattails of a well-regarded Preppie. They earn the respect of others by abusing and firing Angels and by outmaneuvering other Predators.

Preppies are the most successful of the three archetypes. Their extensive family connections will steer huge amounts of business to their employer as a matter of course, with little to no effort necessary. They show up late to meetings and vacation for months at a time because they know there will be plenty of Angels back at the office to do their work for them as long a few Predators are left behind to yell at them. It's okay if they fall asleep on the job because they always have an Angel at hand to take notes for them and explain what they missed. Preppies intermarry primarily with each other to extend their bloodlines, but sometimes the more adventurous among them will deign to marry a genetically healthy Predator (based on looks and personality). They usually rise to the top on the back of work done by Angels and Predators. Preppies are the star performers of Wall Street and darlings of the social scene in major metropolitan areas.

If you are a Preppie, you don't need to read my blog. All of your career insights will come from family members. If you are a Predator, you'll probably read my blog just to claim my ideas as your own so you can score a promotion (go to hell, jackass). If you're an Angel, for Pete's sake don't spend longer than a year or two working for Predators and Preppies. Start your own business and outperform them in life.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Day Traders Never Learn

Some people just shouldn't be allowed to invest their own money. Day traders are playing games with Phoney and Fraudie:

Shares of U.S. government-controlled mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soared for a second straight day on Tuesday after attracting the attention of day-traders looking to turn a quick profit with these low-priced household names.


Attention idiots: These two stocks are worthless. Worthless. They have no assets and lost billions of dollars last quarter.

Too many otherwise productive adults are willing to bet their hard-earned money on stocks that don't deserve to exist.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi has no position in FNM or FRE.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Updating The Alpha-D For Aug. '09

Some of my short option positions expired unexercised last Friday, so I did alright by hanging onto those premiums. I have renewed my option positions as follows:

FXI and GDX: short straddles that expire Sept. 2009.

IAU: short put that expires Sept. 2009. This netted me almost nothing as the bid collapsed just as I entered the trade!

ANV: short put that expires Mar. 2010. This is a new position based on my assessment that ANV is a junior miner that's going places. I remain long ANV itself.

For the first month in quite some time I have no position at all in IWM. I could not find an OTM call that would have made it worth my while to go short. I am not going long the ETF itself until we hit the next leg down in this W-shaped depression.

My previously set option positions in SPY, EFA, and VWO will expire next month. They're OTM so far . . . I like that.

Friday, August 21, 2009

China Has Had Enough Of U.S. Debt

The tipping point in Uncle Sam's debt binge is finally here. It came in bits and pieces but the overall outline is no longer in doubt:

China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury.

China holds more US government debt than any other country and cut its holdings of US securities by more that 3% in June, said the BBC's Chris Hogg.



The handwriting is on the wall but many Americans are illiterate. One by one, the U.S.'s foreign creditors will decline to buy our Treasury bonds. One by one, they will choose to stimulate their own economies and not ours. One by one, they will pursue autarkic programs and leave the U.S. to its fate. There is no need for another Smoot-Hawley tariff this time around to drive global trade through the floorboards. The eventual collapse of the dollar will accomplish that all by itself.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is long FXI with a short straddle.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The Haiku of Finance for 08/19/09

Markets catch a cold
Chinese sneeze blows down world stocks
Cash gets some bed rest

China Closes Down, Spooks U.S.

It used to be that when U.S. markets sneezed, Asian markets caught a cold. Now it's the other way around:

World stocks sank Wednesday, with European indexes spooked by a 5 percent drop in China that strengthened fears stocks have become overpriced after this year's powerful rally.
(snip)

China's benchmark index has lost nearly 20 percent since Aug. 4 on worries about corporate profits, the strength of China's recovery and possible changes in Beijing's easy credit policy that has helped to fuel the bull run in Chinese stocks this year.


Dow and S&P 500 futures were down too; I expect Aug. 19 to be a down day for U.S. markets. This is the kind of news that illustrates how the world is changing, with China supplanting the U.S. as the nation to which the rest of the world turns for leadership. I look past the fact that China's stocks are down from their peak. That's why I'm holding FXI for a very long time.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Allied Nevada Finds Gold And Raises Capital

I continue to be proud of the only single stock holding in my portfolio, a junior gold producer named Allied Nevada Gold Corp. They have recently reported good results from exploratory drilling at their Hycroft property:

Successful drilling in 2008 suggests that a large blanket of sulfide mineralization, associated with veining and brecciation, exists directly below the oxide mineralization at the Vortex. An inferred resource of 62.0 million tonnes grading 0.78 g/t gold and 48.1 million tonnes grading 68.14 g/t silver, for inferred resources of 1.5 million ounces of gold and 105.3 million ounces of silver was released for the zone in March 2008.


Suffice it to say that this is a very positive result. If the Vortex zone's mineral grades remain higher than those of the overall Hycroft property, it may very well become the "bonanza zone" of that property.

Results like this are the reason Allied Nevada is successful at raising more cash to fund further operations:

Allied Nevada Gold Corp said it would raise about C$100.4 million ($92.45 million) by selling 11.2 million common shares to a syndicate of underwriters co-led by GMP Securities LP and Genuity Capital Markets.



The underwriters have enough confidence to subscribe to the entire issue up front. Good for them. I felt the same way when I first met Carl Pescio, one of Allied Nevada's largest shareholders, before he helped create the company.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is long ANV, with the intention to continue selling OTM puts under its market price.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Top Of The Mark(et)

This is the Top Of The Mark:



It's a storied bar on the top floor of the Mark Hopkins, one of the most renowned hotels on Nob Hill, one of the highest places in San Francisco. Many people spend a lot of money there on food, drink, and dates in pursuit of the good life. It's one of those places that makes me glad to be a San Franciscan.



It's a storied place where the DJIA and other indicators reach the highest possible valuation given current fundamentals. Many people spend a lot of money there on growth stocks, can't-miss plays, and great sell-side ideas in pursuit of the good life. It's one of those places that makes me glad to be a contrarian investor.

I'm calling the peak of this sputtering bull market right about now. It may not be obvious for a few more weeks, but hey, I'll go out on a limb.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

The Limerick of Finance for 08/15/09

Confidence of consumers still wanes
People can't spend if wallets stir pains
Their accounts are dried out
Nothing left in the spout
They'd save cash if they had any brains