Know when downturn starts and ends
Measure data points
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Sunday, July 31, 2022
Monday, June 27, 2022
Monday, February 15, 2016
Sunday, November 16, 2014
The Limerick of Finance for 11/16/14
Japan's heading back down a hole
Abenomics played dominant role
Recession restarts
It's in all the charts
Sales tax did not achieve its goal
Abenomics played dominant role
Recession restarts
It's in all the charts
Sales tax did not achieve its goal
Thursday, October 17, 2013
The Haiku of Finance for 10/17/13
Damage has been done
Shutdown may cause recession
Too late to undo
Shutdown may cause recession
Too late to undo
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Monday, February 25, 2013
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 02/25/13
I didn't watch the Oscars last night because I'm not interested in Hollywood's self-congratulations. Hollywood should congratulate me for being such a good writer. Maybe they will someday. Until that day comes, I have the web traffic of my faithful readers - all three of them - to provide me with accolades.
The Brits are keeping their stiff upper lip rather than bemoan the loss of their AAA credit rating. Good for them. The UK can keep up its special relationship with the US as our credit ratings are downgraded together. Don't expect to hear similar expressions of resolve on this side of the pond. Americans will wail in pain as our declining credit rating forces real interest rates up. We are the world's indispensable nation, after all.
Italian voters might get their act together someday but I won't count on it. Multiple contenders in their national election today portend a muddled result. The eurozone countries in default are probably better off with Eurocrat carpetbaggers imposed on their systems but that experiment just wasn't palatable to voters who won't accept austerity. Whoever wins will have to renege on many campaign promises and handle Italy's insolvency, which I believe will require the country to leave the euro and immediately hyperinflate the new lira. I may still have relatives living in that country but I have nothing in common with them at all.
State governors know the federal sequester will tip some of their economies back into recession. I say bring it on. The states have relied on federal matching funds for too long and they need to break the addiction. Funding social services should be decided at the local level anyway, so people can see the impact of taxing and spending decisions in their own communities. I don't feel sorry for states like Maryland and Virginia that have benefited from exploding federal spending on defense and homeland security since 9/11. They could learn from California's experience in the early 1990s when defense cuts at the end of the Cold War forced many communities to diversify their economies. The sequester will probably look a lot like the fiscal cliff debate two months ago, with lots of posturing and last-minute concessions on future spending so deficit spending can go on as usual this year. The bond market gets the final say on this one.
Strong auto sales? Yeah right. Read what I blogged yesterday about the questionable underpinnings of the auto sector's revival. Look at how fleet sales make up 21% of this month's demand, then look at my paragraph just above this one about what a sequester will do to state budgets. In case you can't make the connection, the simple math is thus: Sequester risk + bond market run = end of strong government sales in automobile sector.
The European Commission expects the eurozone recession to continue in 2013. This is despite unprecedented central bank support for credit markets to stimulate demand. The Economist notes that central banks are determined to continue the substance of their experiments with finer language as a cloak. In summary, no one has learned anything, nor is anyone capable of learning anything. Stupid people are in charge of the developed world and will use their enormous power to ruin life for everyone else.
I am not stupid but I am not in charge. Someday I will be in charge of something. It would make a great Hollywood story and I'll bet I'd win an Oscar for writing it.
The Brits are keeping their stiff upper lip rather than bemoan the loss of their AAA credit rating. Good for them. The UK can keep up its special relationship with the US as our credit ratings are downgraded together. Don't expect to hear similar expressions of resolve on this side of the pond. Americans will wail in pain as our declining credit rating forces real interest rates up. We are the world's indispensable nation, after all.
Italian voters might get their act together someday but I won't count on it. Multiple contenders in their national election today portend a muddled result. The eurozone countries in default are probably better off with Eurocrat carpetbaggers imposed on their systems but that experiment just wasn't palatable to voters who won't accept austerity. Whoever wins will have to renege on many campaign promises and handle Italy's insolvency, which I believe will require the country to leave the euro and immediately hyperinflate the new lira. I may still have relatives living in that country but I have nothing in common with them at all.
State governors know the federal sequester will tip some of their economies back into recession. I say bring it on. The states have relied on federal matching funds for too long and they need to break the addiction. Funding social services should be decided at the local level anyway, so people can see the impact of taxing and spending decisions in their own communities. I don't feel sorry for states like Maryland and Virginia that have benefited from exploding federal spending on defense and homeland security since 9/11. They could learn from California's experience in the early 1990s when defense cuts at the end of the Cold War forced many communities to diversify their economies. The sequester will probably look a lot like the fiscal cliff debate two months ago, with lots of posturing and last-minute concessions on future spending so deficit spending can go on as usual this year. The bond market gets the final say on this one.
Strong auto sales? Yeah right. Read what I blogged yesterday about the questionable underpinnings of the auto sector's revival. Look at how fleet sales make up 21% of this month's demand, then look at my paragraph just above this one about what a sequester will do to state budgets. In case you can't make the connection, the simple math is thus: Sequester risk + bond market run = end of strong government sales in automobile sector.
The European Commission expects the eurozone recession to continue in 2013. This is despite unprecedented central bank support for credit markets to stimulate demand. The Economist notes that central banks are determined to continue the substance of their experiments with finer language as a cloak. In summary, no one has learned anything, nor is anyone capable of learning anything. Stupid people are in charge of the developed world and will use their enormous power to ruin life for everyone else.
I am not stupid but I am not in charge. Someday I will be in charge of something. It would make a great Hollywood story and I'll bet I'd win an Oscar for writing it.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
The Limerick of Finance for 12/30/12
This year has wound down to an end
A "fiscal cliff" deal still not penned
Some plan will get done
That will please no one
More posturing just 'round the bend
A "fiscal cliff" deal still not penned
Some plan will get done
That will please no one
More posturing just 'round the bend
Friday, November 02, 2012
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Sunday, October 21, 2012
The Limerick of Finance for 10/21/12
Japan's exports have hit a new slump
Bonds rose when stocks went to the dump
This really looks bad
Making investors sad
Going long is a trade for a chump
Bonds rose when stocks went to the dump
This really looks bad
Making investors sad
Going long is a trade for a chump
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
Observing the Global Market Minefield
There are too many mines in the water to count. The best course for a boat in these waters is to stand still and let some other imprudent captain detonate them. Let's consider the mines in plain sight.
Some specialized analysts, as good as they can be with a given sector sometimes, still miss the big picture. Wondering whether port capacity can keep up with growth in container traffic may be a moot point very soon. The IMF keeps flashing the warning signal about a renewed global recession. Ocean carriers won't need so many container ships after all and port officials can quit thinking about expansion for the rest of this decade.
Greece is all-in on a financial transactions tax and other European countries are cheering them on. I've voiced my support for such a tax here in the U.S. because it will make hedge funds' HFT business lines painfully expensive. This long-term social good comes with a short-term cost. HFTs now generate so much of the volume on exchanges that destroying them will shatter market confidence and probably send indexes reeling. That's fine with me, because I need some bargains to buy.
In the dust-up over whether the BLS's latest unemployment report was realistic, you may have missed the Census report on factory orders declining by 5.2% in August. Ouch.
Sanctions on Iran are destroying its currency and economy. Tehran is countering with tighter controls on currency trading. The flexibility of that "exchange center" goes beyond currency and could easily adapt itself to a domestic rationing regime for basic commodities. Iran may very well earn enough in net exports to muddle through tighter sanctions next year. Never underestimate an authoritarian regime's ability to survive by transferring hardship to its people. This contest with the mullahs would be terrific bloodsport if the world economy were healthy, but the Iranian wild card is to shut the the Strait of Hormuz and spike world oil prices. There's your trigger for depression, if you wish to take notice.
BTW, the continued ability of World Bank and IMF officials to talk out of both sides of their mouths is unintentionally humorous. The preferred solution to "fiscal cliffs" offered by globalist bankers is more kick-the-can delays in austerity that will eventually turn hard landings into smoking craters. They know full well that heavily indebted economies cannot grow their way to prosperity. The gods of the growth cargo cult must be appeased until the island is inundated by a hyperinflationary tsunami.
Why do I even bother connecting the dots? Well, for one thing I just like to mouth off. I also want a publicly available record that I did not throw my portfolio into a black hole along with every other dummy on Wall Street. Let them strike the sea mines first. I'll note the clear path marked by derelict hulks (i.e. asset classes to avoid) and tow them for salvage (buy the dummies' assets out of bankruptcy).
Some specialized analysts, as good as they can be with a given sector sometimes, still miss the big picture. Wondering whether port capacity can keep up with growth in container traffic may be a moot point very soon. The IMF keeps flashing the warning signal about a renewed global recession. Ocean carriers won't need so many container ships after all and port officials can quit thinking about expansion for the rest of this decade.
Greece is all-in on a financial transactions tax and other European countries are cheering them on. I've voiced my support for such a tax here in the U.S. because it will make hedge funds' HFT business lines painfully expensive. This long-term social good comes with a short-term cost. HFTs now generate so much of the volume on exchanges that destroying them will shatter market confidence and probably send indexes reeling. That's fine with me, because I need some bargains to buy.
In the dust-up over whether the BLS's latest unemployment report was realistic, you may have missed the Census report on factory orders declining by 5.2% in August. Ouch.
Sanctions on Iran are destroying its currency and economy. Tehran is countering with tighter controls on currency trading. The flexibility of that "exchange center" goes beyond currency and could easily adapt itself to a domestic rationing regime for basic commodities. Iran may very well earn enough in net exports to muddle through tighter sanctions next year. Never underestimate an authoritarian regime's ability to survive by transferring hardship to its people. This contest with the mullahs would be terrific bloodsport if the world economy were healthy, but the Iranian wild card is to shut the the Strait of Hormuz and spike world oil prices. There's your trigger for depression, if you wish to take notice.
BTW, the continued ability of World Bank and IMF officials to talk out of both sides of their mouths is unintentionally humorous. The preferred solution to "fiscal cliffs" offered by globalist bankers is more kick-the-can delays in austerity that will eventually turn hard landings into smoking craters. They know full well that heavily indebted economies cannot grow their way to prosperity. The gods of the growth cargo cult must be appeased until the island is inundated by a hyperinflationary tsunami.
Why do I even bother connecting the dots? Well, for one thing I just like to mouth off. I also want a publicly available record that I did not throw my portfolio into a black hole along with every other dummy on Wall Street. Let them strike the sea mines first. I'll note the clear path marked by derelict hulks (i.e. asset classes to avoid) and tow them for salvage (buy the dummies' assets out of bankruptcy).
Friday, September 21, 2012
Recession Signs Abound For Dummies
The "Dummies" book series is popular because it doesn't insult it's readers intelligence. I don't insult my readers because they're intelligent enough to get my analysis and humor. The people I do insult are too dumb to ever read my blog. This post is about them; more specifically, it's about a few signs of a renewed recession that they'll probably miss, because they're dumb.
The WTO is downgrading its global trade forecast for 2013. I'm puzzled by their continued insistence on some growth rather than none. They've caught on to all the noise made by doom and gloom prognosticators who will soon be hailed as prophetic. It's funny to recall the chatter from a few years ago about how the world's economies were supposed to decouple, mainly from portfolio managers looking to validate their theories about geographic diversification. The only useful diversification for the next few years will be in currencies not linked to the dollar or euro, or in countries with economies focused on natural resource production. Everything else remains coupled due to central banks' foolish penchant for monetary stimulus.
A majority of U.S. states is now reporting rising jobless numbers. These numbers won't be counted in federal unemployment statistics because the DOL's economists are more skilled at massaging unpleasant data than the amateurs in state capitals. Look for more dine-in restaurants to start accepting EBT payments, because catering to welfare recipients is a growth industry.
Every baseless rescue announcement in 2008 pumped the stock market up until the unavoidable liquidity crisis hit in September. The same nonsense is happening now, with European stocks rising on pump promises that can't be fulfilled without destroying the euro. Equity markets move in one direction while macroeconomic data moves the other way. Only dummies would ignore these clearly marked warning signs of a big fat global recession. Count on Wall Street analysts to stay bullish and money managers to keep buying equities and fixed income. They're dumb.
The WTO is downgrading its global trade forecast for 2013. I'm puzzled by their continued insistence on some growth rather than none. They've caught on to all the noise made by doom and gloom prognosticators who will soon be hailed as prophetic. It's funny to recall the chatter from a few years ago about how the world's economies were supposed to decouple, mainly from portfolio managers looking to validate their theories about geographic diversification. The only useful diversification for the next few years will be in currencies not linked to the dollar or euro, or in countries with economies focused on natural resource production. Everything else remains coupled due to central banks' foolish penchant for monetary stimulus.
A majority of U.S. states is now reporting rising jobless numbers. These numbers won't be counted in federal unemployment statistics because the DOL's economists are more skilled at massaging unpleasant data than the amateurs in state capitals. Look for more dine-in restaurants to start accepting EBT payments, because catering to welfare recipients is a growth industry.
Every baseless rescue announcement in 2008 pumped the stock market up until the unavoidable liquidity crisis hit in September. The same nonsense is happening now, with European stocks rising on pump promises that can't be fulfilled without destroying the euro. Equity markets move in one direction while macroeconomic data moves the other way. Only dummies would ignore these clearly marked warning signs of a big fat global recession. Count on Wall Street analysts to stay bullish and money managers to keep buying equities and fixed income. They're dumb.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Trouble Pulls Into Port If ILA Strikes
Those of you awaiting the remainder of my commentary from last weekend's Money Show need to wait one more day. I'd like to take this opportunity to mention how a likely slowdown in port activity is about to put the final nail in the coffin tipping the U.S. economy back into recession.
The ILA is about to authorize a strike by its port workers. The specific port where the strike starts isn't relevant because of the ILA's reach across the East and Gulf Coasts. This is very bad news for retailers who need to stock up on inventory prior to the Christmas shopping season. Union greed is once again putting America's international trade in a headlock.
The lesson of a similar strike in 2002 on the West Coast was that shipping traffic could be diverted from West Coast ports to the East and Gulf. Port operators in the West plan to reverse that flow this time around but they shouldn't count their chickens before they're hatched. Remember the Occupy movement's success in shutting down the Port of Oakland? This is a national election year and Occupy hasn't gone away. The two busiest West Coast ports are Oakland and Long Beach but California's electoral votes are not going to be seriously contested this time (it's a lock for the incumbent). That won't matter much to Occupiers. The movement still has heavy union support and can easily be mobilized again to send a political message.
A union hand in an Occupy glove remains a risk to the U.S. retail supply chain. It can easily metastasize into a live threat. An ILA East/Gulf strike combined with West Coast port agitation could mean a very "blue Christmas" for retailers.
The ILA is about to authorize a strike by its port workers. The specific port where the strike starts isn't relevant because of the ILA's reach across the East and Gulf Coasts. This is very bad news for retailers who need to stock up on inventory prior to the Christmas shopping season. Union greed is once again putting America's international trade in a headlock.
The lesson of a similar strike in 2002 on the West Coast was that shipping traffic could be diverted from West Coast ports to the East and Gulf. Port operators in the West plan to reverse that flow this time around but they shouldn't count their chickens before they're hatched. Remember the Occupy movement's success in shutting down the Port of Oakland? This is a national election year and Occupy hasn't gone away. The two busiest West Coast ports are Oakland and Long Beach but California's electoral votes are not going to be seriously contested this time (it's a lock for the incumbent). That won't matter much to Occupiers. The movement still has heavy union support and can easily be mobilized again to send a political message.
A union hand in an Occupy glove remains a risk to the U.S. retail supply chain. It can easily metastasize into a live threat. An ILA East/Gulf strike combined with West Coast port agitation could mean a very "blue Christmas" for retailers.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
The Haiku of Finance for 08/23/12
Fiscal cliff coming
Mild recession will turn sharp
Without a firm plan
Mild recession will turn sharp
Without a firm plan
Monday, July 30, 2012
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 07/30/12
Monday brings me more headlines to ridicule. Join the fun, or else.
Central banks are planning something big. Euro-bankers have been running their fat garlic-stuffed mouths up to now about how much they love the euro but they've done little serious money printing. They're probably waiting for whatever U.S. market correction will quiet the Fed's anti-inflation hawks long enough for Helicopter Ben to activate his dollar swap lines.
Maybe we won't have to wait too long for central bankers to make their move. Maybe the ECB is serious about eating big losses on Greek bonds. This deliberate trial balloon signals that the Fed's swap lines are probably on a hair trigger. The U.S. was probably hoping this could wait until after November, so Secretary Geithner's visit may be a hasty reassessment of whether a Fed bailout of the ECB will trigger a run on the dollar.
Don't you believe me? Fine, don't believe me. Believe the German Finance minister who says he won't support any further ECB purchases of Spanish sovereign debt. The only way the ECB can get around German intransigence is with backup from the Fed. The Anglo-Atlanticist coup at the IMF (you know, the one that installed Mme. Lagarde) isn't solid enough to overpower the Continent's traditional royal houses without a crisis. The Geither-Schauble meetings have ended in detente with bland statements advocating "reform" to succor the media. The stalemate in the trans-Atlantic war for control of the Continent's finances won't be broken until a major news event (Greek exit, Spanish default) breaks the euro.
My hints so far may not have been clear enough about my central thesis. The Anglo-American elite and the traditional Continental elite have competed with each other for world leadership since at least World War One, when the British Empire and the American Empire largely ceased to be rivals. The commoners on either side of the pond have little knowledge of this conflict and even less say in its outcome.
Now it's time for some happy news about America. Some analysts are predicting U.S. corporate profits to shrink. See, there are some financial analysts who aren't totally brain dead. Even the U.S. Department of Commerce has analysts who can think for themselves, because they figured out that corporate profits were overestimated after the recession supposedly ended. This is remarkable. Honest people in both the public and private sectors can actually figure out that the U.S. economy is not healthy at all. They should read my blog for confirmation.
Central banks are planning something big. Euro-bankers have been running their fat garlic-stuffed mouths up to now about how much they love the euro but they've done little serious money printing. They're probably waiting for whatever U.S. market correction will quiet the Fed's anti-inflation hawks long enough for Helicopter Ben to activate his dollar swap lines.
Maybe we won't have to wait too long for central bankers to make their move. Maybe the ECB is serious about eating big losses on Greek bonds. This deliberate trial balloon signals that the Fed's swap lines are probably on a hair trigger. The U.S. was probably hoping this could wait until after November, so Secretary Geithner's visit may be a hasty reassessment of whether a Fed bailout of the ECB will trigger a run on the dollar.
Don't you believe me? Fine, don't believe me. Believe the German Finance minister who says he won't support any further ECB purchases of Spanish sovereign debt. The only way the ECB can get around German intransigence is with backup from the Fed. The Anglo-Atlanticist coup at the IMF (you know, the one that installed Mme. Lagarde) isn't solid enough to overpower the Continent's traditional royal houses without a crisis. The Geither-Schauble meetings have ended in detente with bland statements advocating "reform" to succor the media. The stalemate in the trans-Atlantic war for control of the Continent's finances won't be broken until a major news event (Greek exit, Spanish default) breaks the euro.
My hints so far may not have been clear enough about my central thesis. The Anglo-American elite and the traditional Continental elite have competed with each other for world leadership since at least World War One, when the British Empire and the American Empire largely ceased to be rivals. The commoners on either side of the pond have little knowledge of this conflict and even less say in its outcome.
Now it's time for some happy news about America. Some analysts are predicting U.S. corporate profits to shrink. See, there are some financial analysts who aren't totally brain dead. Even the U.S. Department of Commerce has analysts who can think for themselves, because they figured out that corporate profits were overestimated after the recession supposedly ended. This is remarkable. Honest people in both the public and private sectors can actually figure out that the U.S. economy is not healthy at all. They should read my blog for confirmation.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
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