Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts

Monday, June 29, 2026

The Haiku of Finance for 06/29/26

Trading all day long
Great way to lose more money
Day traders are dumb

Monday, June 02, 2025

The Haiku of Finance for 06/02/25

Arbitrage for tariff wars
May taste like chicken

Friday, May 31, 2024

Sunday, March 28, 2021

The Limerick of Finance for 03/28/21

Degenerates like to day trade
With Redditors who don't get paid
WallStreetBets is all wrong
Whether they're short or long
Their readers are going to get played

Monday, September 30, 2019

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Monday, May 18, 2015

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Sunday, December 14, 2014

The Limerick of Finance for 12/14/14

Speculators waded into oil
Falling price set their plans up for spoil
Some producers go bust
Wells reverting to dust
OPEC pumping keeps shale in the soil

Sunday, December 07, 2014

The Limerick of Finance for 12/07/14

Yahoo Finance shows all the stock quotes
News releases must hit the right notes
Traders don't read reports
While covering shorts
They might as well go herd some goats

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Thursday, October 09, 2014

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

The Haiku of Finance for 09/09/14

Hourly trading
Stupid technical voodoo
No indication

First And Last Hour Trading Is a Stupid Gimmick

Stupid ideas frequently pop up on my radar whenever I troll the depths of the Internet for investment knowledge.  Some ideas just don't belong in the realm of sensible investing.  Trading for advantage in either the first or last hour of an equity market's trading day is one such bad idea.  

Quickly perusing the top articles in a web search of "last hour trading" reveals that the concept relies heavily on folk wisdom, technical analysis, and gut feeling.  None of those forces incorporate any fundamental analysis of a stock's underlying value.  All of them play to emotions that get investors in trouble.  The ETF revolution isn't helping here because day traders just use them as more random playthings.  

Here's an illustration of just how dumb traders can be with hourly trading stats.  The so-called smart money index gained popularity in the 1990s because it supposedly compares morning trades to evening trades.  The index proceeds from a basic construction flaw.  It is impossible to set a normal baseline value for the index because it begins with a previous day's close.  That one flaw is enough to invalidate any claims to validity.  It gets even dumber by assuming evening trades are more rational, as if intraday news doesn't move prices and large institutions with internal crossing networks aren't jamming the close.  Sheesh.  

NASDAQ's Extended Hours Trading data display does the investing public a disservice by feeding traders' appetites for this nonsense.  It formalizes the baseline construction flaw I identified above.  The exchange's Pre-Market Indicator (PMI) and After-Hours Indicator (AHI) offer little proof that they are reliable sentiment estimates.  What's the baseline value for these numbers?  Where's the historical data for each indicator, so we can compare sentiment changes to the NASDAQ's turning points?  What's the date where they start at zero?  This data is absent.  These indicators are just voodoo.  

Advocates of short-term trading in first hours, last hours, after hours, or any other hours bear a burden of proof that their concepts add value.  Day traders should produce an audited portfolio that consistently outperforms market benchmarks over time using these hourly strategies.  Hedge funds running HFT use nanosecond trading strategies and even they can't outperform the market over time, net of fees.  The myth that traders can gain pricing advantages by focusing on hourly trading flows persists with no peer-reviewed data in its favor.  First and last hour traders are losers.  

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Sunday, March 30, 2014

The Limerick of Finance for 03/30/14

Day traders are wasting their time
Charting random noise that does not rhyme
Put away all those sticks
Study deep value picks
Stock prices can turn on a dime