Arbitrage for tariff wars
May taste like chicken
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Monday, June 02, 2025
Friday, May 30, 2025
Sunday, April 27, 2025
Sunday, March 30, 2025
The Haiku of Finance for 03/30/25
Major tariff hike
Sure to disrupt all trade flows
Just like Smoot-Hawley
Friday, February 28, 2025
The Haiku of Finance for 02/28/25
Trade war stock picking
Find domestic trucking stocks
No cross-border hauls
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Saturday, February 06, 2016
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 02/06/16
We are well into 2016 and it doesn't feel much different from 2015. This situation cries out for remedy.
The tech stock crumble continues to drive the NASDAQ down. The whole enchilada is headed to its intrinsic value, which is somewhere north of zero. We can soon party like it's 1999 all over again, except valuations will be more like 2001. Pink slip parties will soon replace Silicon Valley's ubiquitous tech mixers. Come to think of it, those two kinds of parties are indistinguishable.
China wants to throw it down with the EU at the WTO. It's a bluff, like a male gorilla charging in the jungle. China has no intention of addressing any traded disputes in the WTO. It sees the TPP coming and wants no part of multilateral dispute resolution. Making noise at the WTO distracts is lip service to international norms that suckers in Western financial institutions will buy.
Twitter teases its users with a possible new algorithm. It won't matter whether Twitter make sits tweets more relevant, or longer, or more colorful. The horse named Medium has already left the barn. Ordinary schmucks who self-publish have multiple options now besides Twitter. I could go into a ton of reasons about why Twitter makes little sense but the biggest one is its inability to make a profit. It will make a good blog article later on, so stay tuned.
The 50th Super Bowl is tomorrow. Makers of snack chips, hot dogs, and chicken wings have probably had great sales for the past week. Americans should enjoy this while it lasts. Living beyond one's means makes overindulgence possible. I will probably stay home and get work done unless someone offers me free food and booze.
It would feel more like 2016 if we had a real market crash and recessions. That would really differentiate this year from 2015. I have waited so long for this to happen.
The tech stock crumble continues to drive the NASDAQ down. The whole enchilada is headed to its intrinsic value, which is somewhere north of zero. We can soon party like it's 1999 all over again, except valuations will be more like 2001. Pink slip parties will soon replace Silicon Valley's ubiquitous tech mixers. Come to think of it, those two kinds of parties are indistinguishable.
China wants to throw it down with the EU at the WTO. It's a bluff, like a male gorilla charging in the jungle. China has no intention of addressing any traded disputes in the WTO. It sees the TPP coming and wants no part of multilateral dispute resolution. Making noise at the WTO distracts is lip service to international norms that suckers in Western financial institutions will buy.
Twitter teases its users with a possible new algorithm. It won't matter whether Twitter make sits tweets more relevant, or longer, or more colorful. The horse named Medium has already left the barn. Ordinary schmucks who self-publish have multiple options now besides Twitter. I could go into a ton of reasons about why Twitter makes little sense but the biggest one is its inability to make a profit. It will make a good blog article later on, so stay tuned.
The 50th Super Bowl is tomorrow. Makers of snack chips, hot dogs, and chicken wings have probably had great sales for the past week. Americans should enjoy this while it lasts. Living beyond one's means makes overindulgence possible. I will probably stay home and get work done unless someone offers me free food and booze.
It would feel more like 2016 if we had a real market crash and recessions. That would really differentiate this year from 2015. I have waited so long for this to happen.
Thursday, February 04, 2016
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 02/04/16
The US Congress does not feel like rushing through a review of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It is unusual to see lawmakers take their time with important legislation. They typically pass major lobby-backed items in record time, like the Affordable Care Act. "We have to pass the bill so we can see what's in it," or something like that. There's no time to lose when there's money on the table gathering dust.
Vanguard can now buy a bigger block of Chinese A-shares than ever before. Suckers! If you don't know who the mark is in a group of people, it means you are the mark. Western investors keep falling for any China story, whether it was the bull market everyone thought they could ride to planetary dominance or distressed-value bargain investing. Investors raised in Anglo-West cultures, where anti-corruption auditing and property rights are norms, simply cannot fathom that those traits do not characterize the Chinese economy.
The corporate bond market's signals have analysts scratching their heads. Dumb analysts don't realize that the US economy has been truly stagnant since the 2008 financial crisis, with overstated GDP growth and understated unemployment and inflation. National policies to avoid mortgage defaults and backstop corporate credit have only postponed the inevitable crack-up. No one on Wall Street wants to admit that the bond market is toast because that would have investors running for the exits. A whole bunch of careers and firms are bound to implode.
Vanguard can now buy a bigger block of Chinese A-shares than ever before. Suckers! If you don't know who the mark is in a group of people, it means you are the mark. Western investors keep falling for any China story, whether it was the bull market everyone thought they could ride to planetary dominance or distressed-value bargain investing. Investors raised in Anglo-West cultures, where anti-corruption auditing and property rights are norms, simply cannot fathom that those traits do not characterize the Chinese economy.
The corporate bond market's signals have analysts scratching their heads. Dumb analysts don't realize that the US economy has been truly stagnant since the 2008 financial crisis, with overstated GDP growth and understated unemployment and inflation. National policies to avoid mortgage defaults and backstop corporate credit have only postponed the inevitable crack-up. No one on Wall Street wants to admit that the bond market is toast because that would have investors running for the exits. A whole bunch of careers and firms are bound to implode.
Saturday, January 09, 2016
The Haiku of Finance for 01/09/16
Stronger currency
Imports are less expensive
Exports must cost more
Imports are less expensive
Exports must cost more
Sunday, August 02, 2015
The Limerick of Finance for 08/02/15
Pacific Rim talks have no deal
Free trade should have stronger appeal
Ministers disagree
Who will pay smallest fee
No industry gets a free meal
Free trade should have stronger appeal
Ministers disagree
Who will pay smallest fee
No industry gets a free meal
Saturday, May 09, 2015
Monday, April 13, 2015
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 04/13/15
It is time once again to refresh the pile of sarcasm that I have built up since my last missive. I just can't quit. No one else in the financial sector is capable of picking up the sarcasm slack if I'm not around.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks are back in play. It was never really dead because Anglo-Western elites and their friends in places like Japan never give up on something they truly want. Congress needs to get its act together and put the TPP on the fast track. Capitol Hill staffers who were around when NAFTA was ready in 1993 should remember how to get a deal done. Versailles on the Potomac must tap its best operatives. Institutional memory lies within the Deep State.
Companies are salivating over more hot M+A action. Corporate development officers must be getting dumber by the day if they think they can acquire their way to success in this environment. Global macro indicators are heading down and consumer demand is imploding in the largest regional economies. Executives addicted to cheap borrowing see M+A as a substitute for real growth. Paying premiums for high-earning targets in low-growth markets will hurt in the coming downturn.
Ukraine is headed onto S+P's default list. A basket case economy run by kleptocratic cronies for decades should surprise no one when it turns into a black hole for capital. Whoever was dumb enough to buy Ukrainian government bonds last year expecting a bailout should not run a hedge fund, yet these idiots always start another "emerging market debt" fund after they fail. Oh yeah, the US government dumped billions into Ukraine in the 1990s and will never see a return on that foreign aid. The amnesiac, inbred trust fund babies running large investment funds and US government bureaucracies need some kind of public flogging and a lifetime ban from any and all occupations that involve handling money.
Stupidity never ends when stupid people hand down leadership positions to their offspring. The failures noted above rest on the stooped shoulders of enfeebled aristocrats who are finally in water over their heads. They know where to reach me if they need real solutions, provided they step out of the way.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks are back in play. It was never really dead because Anglo-Western elites and their friends in places like Japan never give up on something they truly want. Congress needs to get its act together and put the TPP on the fast track. Capitol Hill staffers who were around when NAFTA was ready in 1993 should remember how to get a deal done. Versailles on the Potomac must tap its best operatives. Institutional memory lies within the Deep State.
Companies are salivating over more hot M+A action. Corporate development officers must be getting dumber by the day if they think they can acquire their way to success in this environment. Global macro indicators are heading down and consumer demand is imploding in the largest regional economies. Executives addicted to cheap borrowing see M+A as a substitute for real growth. Paying premiums for high-earning targets in low-growth markets will hurt in the coming downturn.
Ukraine is headed onto S+P's default list. A basket case economy run by kleptocratic cronies for decades should surprise no one when it turns into a black hole for capital. Whoever was dumb enough to buy Ukrainian government bonds last year expecting a bailout should not run a hedge fund, yet these idiots always start another "emerging market debt" fund after they fail. Oh yeah, the US government dumped billions into Ukraine in the 1990s and will never see a return on that foreign aid. The amnesiac, inbred trust fund babies running large investment funds and US government bureaucracies need some kind of public flogging and a lifetime ban from any and all occupations that involve handling money.
Stupidity never ends when stupid people hand down leadership positions to their offspring. The failures noted above rest on the stooped shoulders of enfeebled aristocrats who are finally in water over their heads. They know where to reach me if they need real solutions, provided they step out of the way.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Monday, July 14, 2014
The Haiku of Finance for 07/14/14
Pacific trade deal
At least set the next meeting
Don't wait for China
At least set the next meeting
Don't wait for China
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 07/14/14
Open your mouths for a big, fat, heaping spoonful of financial sarcasm. It's good for you and you'll get used to the taste in no time flat.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is getting hung up on the US's domestic election calendar. That would not be such a big deal if the negotiators stick to their regular meeting calendar. I remember how NAFTA's negotiations had periodic hangups over domestic political pressures but the parties still got a deal done. If the TPP dealers can't even agree on their next meeting date then they've got more severe problems than one country's elections. I say dress up some actors in a Chinese New Year dragon dance costume and have them throw some firecrackers into the TPP's next press conference. That will wake everyone up about the urgency of creating a trade bloc countering China.
A new Great Wall of China is going up around "wealth management" services. Here's why it's very important for the rest of the Pacific Rim to ring-fence China's economy. China has obviously not fully identified the problems in the risky wealth management products (WMPs) that channeled its middle class savings into failed infrastructure and empty residential projects. The inevitable defaults of these WMPs will destroy any Chinese banks that have not pushed them off their balance sheets. China's obvious hope that FTZs will attract enough FDI to soak up WMP demand is not realistic. Western banks with any sense will keep their FTZ branches away from the Chinese wealth management chop shops.
The silver fix is getting a new caretaking team. There will never be a perfect way to set any daily commodity price. Moving the silver fix to exchanges that habitually make pricing transparent is better than leaving it in the hands of collusive bankers. The gold fix is the obvious next candidate, and then currencies and interest rate benchmarks. Regulators are probably tiring of the vast investigations they must launch every time a bank's misbehaving whale trader nearly causes a systemic lock-up. Taking a global pricing fix away from bank trading desks is like taking the car keys away from a drunk teenager. Someone has to be the adult on the scene.
I would like to thank several hot San Francisco women for making my day a bit less sarcastic. They know who they are. I'm always up for harmless flirtation and the ladies do swoon from my attention.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is getting hung up on the US's domestic election calendar. That would not be such a big deal if the negotiators stick to their regular meeting calendar. I remember how NAFTA's negotiations had periodic hangups over domestic political pressures but the parties still got a deal done. If the TPP dealers can't even agree on their next meeting date then they've got more severe problems than one country's elections. I say dress up some actors in a Chinese New Year dragon dance costume and have them throw some firecrackers into the TPP's next press conference. That will wake everyone up about the urgency of creating a trade bloc countering China.
A new Great Wall of China is going up around "wealth management" services. Here's why it's very important for the rest of the Pacific Rim to ring-fence China's economy. China has obviously not fully identified the problems in the risky wealth management products (WMPs) that channeled its middle class savings into failed infrastructure and empty residential projects. The inevitable defaults of these WMPs will destroy any Chinese banks that have not pushed them off their balance sheets. China's obvious hope that FTZs will attract enough FDI to soak up WMP demand is not realistic. Western banks with any sense will keep their FTZ branches away from the Chinese wealth management chop shops.
The silver fix is getting a new caretaking team. There will never be a perfect way to set any daily commodity price. Moving the silver fix to exchanges that habitually make pricing transparent is better than leaving it in the hands of collusive bankers. The gold fix is the obvious next candidate, and then currencies and interest rate benchmarks. Regulators are probably tiring of the vast investigations they must launch every time a bank's misbehaving whale trader nearly causes a systemic lock-up. Taking a global pricing fix away from bank trading desks is like taking the car keys away from a drunk teenager. Someone has to be the adult on the scene.
I would like to thank several hot San Francisco women for making my day a bit less sarcastic. They know who they are. I'm always up for harmless flirtation and the ladies do swoon from my attention.
Monday, July 07, 2014
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 07/07/14
I expect the amount of nonsense reaching my inbox to increase as the ancien regime of our global financial system approaches its crack-up point. The crescendo should be deafening when it hits.
Japan is having second thoughts about jumping on board with the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. China will make a lot of its neighbors reluctant to co-invest in anything it sponsors. It would be funny if China asked Japan to put up ownership of the Senkakus as collateral for its participation. The Asia Development already works just fine. Leave it to China to copy something and pass it off as original work.
China's securities regulators think they can smooth the number of IPOs each month. These people still have no clue how capitalism works. Demand for new issues should drive the supply of new shares. Some regulatory impulse to dress up capital markets is probably a reaction to lack of investor interest outside China. American investors have been burned by fraudulent Chinese companies making questionable ADR debuts on US exchanges. Chinese founders thus need a domestic outlet to cash out their stakes before fleeing the country.
The businesses community wants the Ex-Im Bank to stick around. Forget the rhetoric disparaging it as a fountain of handouts for big corporations. That is just for the low-information voters in some districts who get riled up about any government program. If corporate money is behind some government agency, it will continue to operate. The Ex-Im Bank's outstanding loan portfolio is a small amount of the nation's outstanding credit burden. It is unlike the mortgage lending for house-flipping and the revolving credit card debt for mindless consumption. This bank's loans drive export earnings. It's a winner, for crying out loud.
The White House is backtracking on comments about more bank regulation. It's so hilarious whenever a politician's handlers bend over backwards to ensure moneyed backers don't take rhetoric seriously. Here's a lesson in politics for anyone who knows nothing. Political comments to the general public are just noise to fill space. Business lobbies should not be so easily fooled, yet the decline in competence I have witnessed among America's elite class in my lifetime indicates that some of them do fall for the common rhetoric. A few trust fund babies running lousy hedge funds must have made some panicked phone calls to Washington.
The dumb things I've noted above happen all the time. The dumb people doing these things will be even dumber in a big crisis. That will be time for me to make some money at their expense by trading against stupidity. Bring on the panic.
Japan is having second thoughts about jumping on board with the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. China will make a lot of its neighbors reluctant to co-invest in anything it sponsors. It would be funny if China asked Japan to put up ownership of the Senkakus as collateral for its participation. The Asia Development already works just fine. Leave it to China to copy something and pass it off as original work.
China's securities regulators think they can smooth the number of IPOs each month. These people still have no clue how capitalism works. Demand for new issues should drive the supply of new shares. Some regulatory impulse to dress up capital markets is probably a reaction to lack of investor interest outside China. American investors have been burned by fraudulent Chinese companies making questionable ADR debuts on US exchanges. Chinese founders thus need a domestic outlet to cash out their stakes before fleeing the country.
The businesses community wants the Ex-Im Bank to stick around. Forget the rhetoric disparaging it as a fountain of handouts for big corporations. That is just for the low-information voters in some districts who get riled up about any government program. If corporate money is behind some government agency, it will continue to operate. The Ex-Im Bank's outstanding loan portfolio is a small amount of the nation's outstanding credit burden. It is unlike the mortgage lending for house-flipping and the revolving credit card debt for mindless consumption. This bank's loans drive export earnings. It's a winner, for crying out loud.
The White House is backtracking on comments about more bank regulation. It's so hilarious whenever a politician's handlers bend over backwards to ensure moneyed backers don't take rhetoric seriously. Here's a lesson in politics for anyone who knows nothing. Political comments to the general public are just noise to fill space. Business lobbies should not be so easily fooled, yet the decline in competence I have witnessed among America's elite class in my lifetime indicates that some of them do fall for the common rhetoric. A few trust fund babies running lousy hedge funds must have made some panicked phone calls to Washington.
The dumb things I've noted above happen all the time. The dumb people doing these things will be even dumber in a big crisis. That will be time for me to make some money at their expense by trading against stupidity. Bring on the panic.
Monday, March 17, 2014
Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 03/17/14
Here's a shout-out to all of the stupid losers who think a happy Saint Patrick's Day is about getting plastered as fast as possible. True geniuses like Yours Truly know how to enjoy public festivals responsibly.
The Transatlantic trade pact partners are still yapping about what a great deal they're going to get. Talk is cheap. It's a good thing the US typically names political donors and trust fund babies as its ambassadors to Europe. Those folks have the contacts to reach back to the US business community and ask for negotiating instructions. This trade pact will be a boon if it makes German chocolate and Italian salami cheaper to buy in San Francisco.
The FDIC begins its legal pursuit of Libor manipulation. This is more than a year after London regulators realized how tough it would be to bring large banks to heel. Don't think this is going anywhere. Regulators have to go through the motions and levy wrist-slap fines so they can find future employment with the same miscreant banks.
New York just knocked London off its pedestal as the world's top financial center. Go USA, red / white / blue and all that jazz. Maybe a bunch of Russian "oily-garchs" decided to move some business out of London last year. I can't believe San Francisco isn't in the Big Four. What's wrong with this town? We've got plenty of cash laying around. Silicon Valley billionaires are doing their part for M&A by adding more app makers to their ecosystems.
Low-income Americans are stuck in poverty. These people are like that old TV commercial where that old lady says she's fallen and can't get up. There are plenty of reasons why the poor can't find decent-paying work. The minimum wage, illegal immigration, and health care mandates make it too expensive for small businesses to hire more workers. Poor folks will have to take multiple part-time jobs to raise their living standards. If it's any consolation, that's also the future of work for most of the highly-skilled middle class.
St. Patrick's Day means some leprechaun is stumbling towards a pot of gold with a drink in hand. Now is the time to follow him.
The Transatlantic trade pact partners are still yapping about what a great deal they're going to get. Talk is cheap. It's a good thing the US typically names political donors and trust fund babies as its ambassadors to Europe. Those folks have the contacts to reach back to the US business community and ask for negotiating instructions. This trade pact will be a boon if it makes German chocolate and Italian salami cheaper to buy in San Francisco.
The FDIC begins its legal pursuit of Libor manipulation. This is more than a year after London regulators realized how tough it would be to bring large banks to heel. Don't think this is going anywhere. Regulators have to go through the motions and levy wrist-slap fines so they can find future employment with the same miscreant banks.
New York just knocked London off its pedestal as the world's top financial center. Go USA, red / white / blue and all that jazz. Maybe a bunch of Russian "oily-garchs" decided to move some business out of London last year. I can't believe San Francisco isn't in the Big Four. What's wrong with this town? We've got plenty of cash laying around. Silicon Valley billionaires are doing their part for M&A by adding more app makers to their ecosystems.
Low-income Americans are stuck in poverty. These people are like that old TV commercial where that old lady says she's fallen and can't get up. There are plenty of reasons why the poor can't find decent-paying work. The minimum wage, illegal immigration, and health care mandates make it too expensive for small businesses to hire more workers. Poor folks will have to take multiple part-time jobs to raise their living standards. If it's any consolation, that's also the future of work for most of the highly-skilled middle class.
St. Patrick's Day means some leprechaun is stumbling towards a pot of gold with a drink in hand. Now is the time to follow him.
Friday, March 14, 2014
International Trade Centre Scores Big With Big Data Maps
I am not easily impressed but multinational institutions continue to impress me with Big Data tools. I noticed that the UN/WTO International Trade Centre maintains several search maps of data on trade and investment. I don't believe I've ever seen them before. They look too useful to ignore.
The ITC Trade Map covers the import/export side of business equations. If I were analyzing a country whose economy I believe is export-driven (i.e., Australia's natural resource exports), I would examine its trade flows with major customers (i.e., China) to see periodic changes. This would help me assess directional changes in the exporting country's GDP and currency.
The ITC Investment Map has FDI data that may prove useful to me as I try to understand why foreign investors target some sectors and regions within the US.
The ITC Market Access Map shows further data on tariffs and quotas. I am not an expert on tariff systems but knowing where to find them will help me understand barriers to entry in the sectors I routinely follow.
The ITC Trade Competitiveness Map is an indexed comparison of how different countries compare in the competitiveness of their products.
The ITC Standards Map looks like it's the most boring of the available maps. Maybe lobbyists and labor unions like to wade through reams of conduct rules. I don't have much patience for that in my analysis but I would like to give it at least a cursory look.
The bad news is that access to these databases is password restricted. Users from developed countries can only obtain limited access for free. I'm based in the US and I'm sure as all get-out not paying a penny for something that should be free. The US is the UN system's largest source of funding and we should insist that this data be free to the entire world as a global public good. I haven't tried to register for an account yet. Let's see how efficient this UN entity proves to be in processing my requests for access. I can't wait to test drive as much data as they'll let me have.
The ITC Trade Map covers the import/export side of business equations. If I were analyzing a country whose economy I believe is export-driven (i.e., Australia's natural resource exports), I would examine its trade flows with major customers (i.e., China) to see periodic changes. This would help me assess directional changes in the exporting country's GDP and currency.
The ITC Investment Map has FDI data that may prove useful to me as I try to understand why foreign investors target some sectors and regions within the US.
The ITC Market Access Map shows further data on tariffs and quotas. I am not an expert on tariff systems but knowing where to find them will help me understand barriers to entry in the sectors I routinely follow.
The ITC Trade Competitiveness Map is an indexed comparison of how different countries compare in the competitiveness of their products.
The ITC Standards Map looks like it's the most boring of the available maps. Maybe lobbyists and labor unions like to wade through reams of conduct rules. I don't have much patience for that in my analysis but I would like to give it at least a cursory look.
The bad news is that access to these databases is password restricted. Users from developed countries can only obtain limited access for free. I'm based in the US and I'm sure as all get-out not paying a penny for something that should be free. The US is the UN system's largest source of funding and we should insist that this data be free to the entire world as a global public good. I haven't tried to register for an account yet. Let's see how efficient this UN entity proves to be in processing my requests for access. I can't wait to test drive as much data as they'll let me have.
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
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