Houthi rebels seek targets to strafe
Ships must take longer route
Rising costs will break out
Feel the pinch as your wallet will chafe
Showing posts with label war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war. Show all posts
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Monday, April 18, 2011
Those Wild And Crazy Peak Oil Contingencies and Indicators
Spiking oil prices are a walk in the park compared to what America's Joe Six Packs will be smacked with if Peak Oil turns out to be real. Tune in here for a sneak preview.
Peak Oil may be hard to time precisely but its precursors are numerous. The Saudis say they're cutting back production due to oversupply. It's true that recent surges in the prices of energy and other commodities are primarily due to the Fed's quantitative easing, with all those excess trading dollars from money-center banks needing release somewhere. It still gives us a good image of what will happen when Saudi Arabia finally concedes that it can't increase production even if it wants to once its fields pass their peaks.
China's quest for the emerging world's resources has now prompted countermoves from Uncle Sam. The U.S. wants to subsidize the expansion of a Colombian oil refinery. There should have been a quid pro quo, like a requirement to sell the refinery's products to American distributors. So where's that deal? Did we not think this through? China's going to be the only player left standing if we don't step up our game.
Presidential wanna-be Donald Trump lets it be known that his ego is a suitable substitute for good judgment and international law. He wants to seize oilfields in Iraq and Libya. I hope he's the first one to volunteer for military service if he doesn't get elected. If he thinks it doesn't take hundreds of thousands of troops to guard Iraqi oil infrastructure then he's welcome to go and find out firsthand just what level of security that requires. That kind of ignorant, irresponsible, inflammatory rhetoric will become more common in America once our middle class realizes it has been permanently priced out of motoring at will. It will be an unfortunate day if such rhetoric is taken seriously enough to elect its sponsors.
Peak Oil may be hard to time precisely but its precursors are numerous. The Saudis say they're cutting back production due to oversupply. It's true that recent surges in the prices of energy and other commodities are primarily due to the Fed's quantitative easing, with all those excess trading dollars from money-center banks needing release somewhere. It still gives us a good image of what will happen when Saudi Arabia finally concedes that it can't increase production even if it wants to once its fields pass their peaks.
China's quest for the emerging world's resources has now prompted countermoves from Uncle Sam. The U.S. wants to subsidize the expansion of a Colombian oil refinery. There should have been a quid pro quo, like a requirement to sell the refinery's products to American distributors. So where's that deal? Did we not think this through? China's going to be the only player left standing if we don't step up our game.
Presidential wanna-be Donald Trump lets it be known that his ego is a suitable substitute for good judgment and international law. He wants to seize oilfields in Iraq and Libya. I hope he's the first one to volunteer for military service if he doesn't get elected. If he thinks it doesn't take hundreds of thousands of troops to guard Iraqi oil infrastructure then he's welcome to go and find out firsthand just what level of security that requires. That kind of ignorant, irresponsible, inflammatory rhetoric will become more common in America once our middle class realizes it has been permanently priced out of motoring at will. It will be an unfortunate day if such rhetoric is taken seriously enough to elect its sponsors.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Tomahawk Strike On Libya Great News For Raytheon
Whoever said war is bad for business never worked for a defense contractor. The international community has begun launching strikes on Muammar Gaddhafi's regime to prevent further atrocities. That in itself is great news. The U.S. won't take the lead but its edge in specialty weapons comes into play early. The allies have fired over 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles to knock out Libyan air defense systems. This will require spent inventories to be replenished. That's great news for Raytheon, the Tomahawk's contractor.
The Tomahawk reportedly costs $756k a copy. RTN can thus expect new orders for at least $76mm later this year as soon as the relevant procurement commands generate their requirement statements. The company will have to wait until the battle damage assessment photos are declassified before it can use the results in its advertisements. War is hell, but you can't make money in hell like you can in war.
Full disclosure: No position in RTN at this time.
The Tomahawk reportedly costs $756k a copy. RTN can thus expect new orders for at least $76mm later this year as soon as the relevant procurement commands generate their requirement statements. The company will have to wait until the battle damage assessment photos are declassified before it can use the results in its advertisements. War is hell, but you can't make money in hell like you can in war.
Full disclosure: No position in RTN at this time.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Currency Crisis Awaits U.S. Dollar And The Rest Of The World
Pundits can pontificate all they like about leading currencies avoiding a state of war with each other. The dollar is under attack by Uncle Sam himself thanks to a stealth round of quantitative easing that Helicopter Ben is waiting to launch.
Perhaps describing QE as the end of the world as we know it is a bit much. Apocalyptic apoplexy may not be appropriate. All this excitement is making gold investors even more excited than they would be without their meds thanks to gold's rising price. Insanely high commodity prices make resource investors happy but prolong the popping of China's property bubbles. What to do when the Chinese bubble pops? Why, blow a new bubble in India with foreign direct investment, of course.
Don't worry if you've decided to sit out these Asian bubbles and currency gyrations. There will be a few more before China and India go to war against each other some day over their disputed Himalayan border.
I hope I've given my readers enough to chew on while I look for some decent stocks that deserve my attention.
Perhaps describing QE as the end of the world as we know it is a bit much. Apocalyptic apoplexy may not be appropriate. All this excitement is making gold investors even more excited than they would be without their meds thanks to gold's rising price. Insanely high commodity prices make resource investors happy but prolong the popping of China's property bubbles. What to do when the Chinese bubble pops? Why, blow a new bubble in India with foreign direct investment, of course.
Don't worry if you've decided to sit out these Asian bubbles and currency gyrations. There will be a few more before China and India go to war against each other some day over their disputed Himalayan border.
I hope I've given my readers enough to chew on while I look for some decent stocks that deserve my attention.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Untapped Resources Set The Stage For Domination
Earth is a finite sphere. There are only so many ounces of recoverable ore left to mine. The point of diminishing returns from resource extraction will appear some day. That day will herald the world's transition from a perpetual growth economy to a steady-state economy.
Until that day comes, it's game on in a scramble for untapped mother lodes of metals and energy. The winners in this scramble will be able to dictate the future structure of the world's political arrangements. There's plenty of potential in the U.S. for wind energy, and the company that lays the grid to collect and distribute wind-derived electricity will hold a perpetual monopoly.
Some resource-rich countries still have relatively accessible mineral deposits. These countries will be able to name their own prices for extraction as long as those deposits last. Such countries also risk becoming battlefields for Great Powers if the price they name for their mother lodes is too high. I am willing to bet that the military leaders of China and India are wargaming options that will maintain their countries' access to resources if a rival cuts them off.
Map out the remaining resource deposits in emerging markets and draw lines from there to Chinese and Indian ports. The flash points for future naval confrontations lie at points where those trade lines cross natural geographic choke points. I will invest accordingly.
Until that day comes, it's game on in a scramble for untapped mother lodes of metals and energy. The winners in this scramble will be able to dictate the future structure of the world's political arrangements. There's plenty of potential in the U.S. for wind energy, and the company that lays the grid to collect and distribute wind-derived electricity will hold a perpetual monopoly.
Some resource-rich countries still have relatively accessible mineral deposits. These countries will be able to name their own prices for extraction as long as those deposits last. Such countries also risk becoming battlefields for Great Powers if the price they name for their mother lodes is too high. I am willing to bet that the military leaders of China and India are wargaming options that will maintain their countries' access to resources if a rival cuts them off.
Map out the remaining resource deposits in emerging markets and draw lines from there to Chinese and Indian ports. The flash points for future naval confrontations lie at points where those trade lines cross natural geographic choke points. I will invest accordingly.
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