Showing posts with label entertainment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label entertainment. Show all posts
Friday, December 19, 2014
Friday, August 22, 2014
Sunday, February 02, 2014
Accurate Performance Metrics For NFL Teams
Super Bowl Sunday brings visions of Americans gorging themselves on fast foods high in corn syrup and saturated fats. Most Americans devolve to tribal loyalties today and cheer on their favorite gladiators while I engage in dispassionate analysis. Professional football needs some serious Moneyball disruption.
Las Vegas oddsmakers and professional NFL team scouts have been using the wrong metrics to evaluate gridiron performance. The most commonly cited metrics include yards per game (YPG) and team yards per play. The NFL's official team stats page has tracked both of these for each team since 1970, with some select stats predating those years. Both of those metrics have little correlation with either season win percentage or Super Bowl championship. I ran the numbers myself on those stats until I realized I was wasting my time.
Results-oriented metrics matter. The winning result in football is scoring points, not accumulating yardage. Football coach Tim Chou proposed the "yards per point differential" at an MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Critics have questioned its relationship with skill while favoring yards per play. There's an intuitive link between yards per play and the on-base percentage of Moneyball fame, but there's one crucial distinction. Hitting is a one-on-one competition between a batter and pitcher. Scoring is a total team effort, reflecting the coach's ability to call plays. I think yards per play still bears too much similarity to older metrics like YPG. Scoring relationships like yards per point can be linked to individual players, which in turn influences their monetary value when under contract.
The point of finding better metrics is to optimally allocate the limited resources of NFL coaches and managers. Coaches wasting time on plays and drills that gain yards will not raise their winning percentages if they don't score points. Managers overpaying for players will ignore the unheralded value of players whose ability to score is hidden in overlooked stats. NFL teams need some Moneyball disruption.
Las Vegas oddsmakers and professional NFL team scouts have been using the wrong metrics to evaluate gridiron performance. The most commonly cited metrics include yards per game (YPG) and team yards per play. The NFL's official team stats page has tracked both of these for each team since 1970, with some select stats predating those years. Both of those metrics have little correlation with either season win percentage or Super Bowl championship. I ran the numbers myself on those stats until I realized I was wasting my time.
Results-oriented metrics matter. The winning result in football is scoring points, not accumulating yardage. Football coach Tim Chou proposed the "yards per point differential" at an MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Critics have questioned its relationship with skill while favoring yards per play. There's an intuitive link between yards per play and the on-base percentage of Moneyball fame, but there's one crucial distinction. Hitting is a one-on-one competition between a batter and pitcher. Scoring is a total team effort, reflecting the coach's ability to call plays. I think yards per play still bears too much similarity to older metrics like YPG. Scoring relationships like yards per point can be linked to individual players, which in turn influences their monetary value when under contract.
The point of finding better metrics is to optimally allocate the limited resources of NFL coaches and managers. Coaches wasting time on plays and drills that gain yards will not raise their winning percentages if they don't score points. Managers overpaying for players will ignore the unheralded value of players whose ability to score is hidden in overlooked stats. NFL teams need some Moneyball disruption.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Helping Kids Isn't My Calling In Life
I went to the movies today to see Ender's Game, a classic sci-fi story with a cult following and a concordance of literature discussing its morality. My local multiplex is typically crowded with families dragging their kids along for a day of distraction. Thankfully there weren't that many kids out today. My theater was devoid of the usual pre-pubescent whining, crying, and general unruliness that follow children everywhere they go. The silence was golden.
American kids are going to have plenty to cry about in the decades ahead so they'd better get it out of their systems right now. Baby Boomers who didn't save will support politicians who promise to guarantee their entitlements from Social Security and Medicare. That means today's kids get nothing. Student loan debt for those kids who attend college will destroy their ability to buy a house or support kids of their own. That means today's kids will own nothing. Unionized teachers are dumbing them down to the point where they will have to download several years' worth of MOOC modules just to make up for what they never learned. That means today's kids know nothing.
Oh yeah, Ender's Game was about kids. I could forgive that because the kid characters in the movie were acting like adults. They trained for war, built teams that balanced each others' strengths, and wrestled with moral questions. That was a welcome relief from the real world, where most of the adults I've known act like children. Don't come crying to me, kids of all ages. I won't pay your way.
American kids are going to have plenty to cry about in the decades ahead so they'd better get it out of their systems right now. Baby Boomers who didn't save will support politicians who promise to guarantee their entitlements from Social Security and Medicare. That means today's kids get nothing. Student loan debt for those kids who attend college will destroy their ability to buy a house or support kids of their own. That means today's kids will own nothing. Unionized teachers are dumbing them down to the point where they will have to download several years' worth of MOOC modules just to make up for what they never learned. That means today's kids know nothing.
Oh yeah, Ender's Game was about kids. I could forgive that because the kid characters in the movie were acting like adults. They trained for war, built teams that balanced each others' strengths, and wrestled with moral questions. That was a welcome relief from the real world, where most of the adults I've known act like children. Don't come crying to me, kids of all ages. I won't pay your way.
Sunday, February 03, 2013
The Limerick of Finance for 02/03/13
The 'Niners did not win the Bowl
That prize is still a worthy goal
Some commercials did score
Halftime did not bore
Local vendors made cash from their role
That prize is still a worthy goal
Some commercials did score
Halftime did not bore
Local vendors made cash from their role
Super Bowl Economics and Sarcasm
I'm not watching Super Bowl XLVII today even though I'd like to see the San Francisco 49ers win. I'm a casual fan of my hometown sports teams because they make The City look good. Anyway, instead of watching the big game, I'd rather blog about its economic effects.
Consider the impact on the city that hosts the game. One economist uses very odd reasoning to argue that the host city suffers economically from a Super Bowl. Common sense tells me he's wrong, and hard evidence shows local businesses reaping windfall profits after months of preparation. The Super Bowl crowds out conventions? Yes, but all of the hotels are filled with people who came to see the Super Bowl! Locals don't come downtown because it's crowded? Yes, but all those huge pressing crowds are spending money in bars and restaurants! I think some economists just don't like big success stories. They'd prefer we all downsize to medieval hamlets. They're free to do so while the rest of us enjoy economies of scale.
TV ad spending is another big financial story with this super sports event. You can get a 30-second spot for about $3.75M. The buyers are almost all consumer products makers or downscale automotive brands. Seeing Mercedes-Benz is a surprise, so I guess they're going for the aspirational demographic. The record numbers of women who now watch the game pay more attention to the ads than men do. Ladies, if you want to understand men, you need to at least try to follow the game. Super Bowl ad spending has a demonstrated ability to drive increases in web traffic. The best ads generate high Ace Scores for effectively connecting consumers with a brand. The ultimate purpose of ads is to drive top-line revenue. Surveying consumers on their predictions of Super Bowl ad impact is less useful than actual sales. Companies probably keep their real tracking data private, so it's worth revisiting the next quarter's income statements of Super Bowl advertisers to see whether their sales increased.
What about the game's players? Do Super Bowl athletes get a payoff from more lucrative team contracts or endorsement deals? The players get a nice five-figure bonus whether they win or lose. If the winner's payout in 2013 is $83,000, it amounts to 4.4% of the average NFL salary of $1.9M. That average is skewed much higher than the $770K median because the superstar player salaries are huge outliers, like quarterbacks making eight figures. The big winners from post-Bowl endorsement deals seem to be the few players who went into the game with existing superstar status, and the NFL is the big winner from ticket sales and television broadcast rights.
The people who benefit financially from the Super Bowl are the shareholders of the most effective advertisers, the world's largest ad agencies, the superstar athletes, the League and its franchise owners, and many local concessionaires. Have fun watching the game.
Consider the impact on the city that hosts the game. One economist uses very odd reasoning to argue that the host city suffers economically from a Super Bowl. Common sense tells me he's wrong, and hard evidence shows local businesses reaping windfall profits after months of preparation. The Super Bowl crowds out conventions? Yes, but all of the hotels are filled with people who came to see the Super Bowl! Locals don't come downtown because it's crowded? Yes, but all those huge pressing crowds are spending money in bars and restaurants! I think some economists just don't like big success stories. They'd prefer we all downsize to medieval hamlets. They're free to do so while the rest of us enjoy economies of scale.
TV ad spending is another big financial story with this super sports event. You can get a 30-second spot for about $3.75M. The buyers are almost all consumer products makers or downscale automotive brands. Seeing Mercedes-Benz is a surprise, so I guess they're going for the aspirational demographic. The record numbers of women who now watch the game pay more attention to the ads than men do. Ladies, if you want to understand men, you need to at least try to follow the game. Super Bowl ad spending has a demonstrated ability to drive increases in web traffic. The best ads generate high Ace Scores for effectively connecting consumers with a brand. The ultimate purpose of ads is to drive top-line revenue. Surveying consumers on their predictions of Super Bowl ad impact is less useful than actual sales. Companies probably keep their real tracking data private, so it's worth revisiting the next quarter's income statements of Super Bowl advertisers to see whether their sales increased.
What about the game's players? Do Super Bowl athletes get a payoff from more lucrative team contracts or endorsement deals? The players get a nice five-figure bonus whether they win or lose. If the winner's payout in 2013 is $83,000, it amounts to 4.4% of the average NFL salary of $1.9M. That average is skewed much higher than the $770K median because the superstar player salaries are huge outliers, like quarterbacks making eight figures. The big winners from post-Bowl endorsement deals seem to be the few players who went into the game with existing superstar status, and the NFL is the big winner from ticket sales and television broadcast rights.
The people who benefit financially from the Super Bowl are the shareholders of the most effective advertisers, the world's largest ad agencies, the superstar athletes, the League and its franchise owners, and many local concessionaires. Have fun watching the game.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Monday, October 08, 2012
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
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