Friday, September 17, 2010

Possible Gray Swans

Here ya go Hondo:

US vs. China trade war.

Wave of municipal bankruptcies in US.

More supply shocks in Russia (grain or oil) force spikes in commodity prices.

Succession crisis in North Korea puts South Korea and Japan on war footing, sinking both their stock markets and sending CDS on their sovereign debt parabolic. 
Pirate activity in Straits of Malacca interrupts one of the world's most important trade lanes, impacting shipping costs, major insurers, oil price, and the Christmas shopping season.
Nota bene:  These are thought experiments, or flights of fancy if you will.  None of the events mentioned are guaranteed to occur.