Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Gold Goes Gonzo While Greece Gets Kudos

Gold hit another record high today.  I guess when the forex market is faced with Japan pushing down its own currency and a dollar held down by ZIRP that no other store of value looks quite as good. 

Meanwhile, the IMF is giving Greece kudos for sticking to its austerity diet.  That's nice to hear, but Greece still has major problems.  Its most recent debt auction went well but two details considered together should give investors pause.  First this auction's bids were 4.5x times the amount of bonds offered, stronger demand than the last auction's 3.64x.  Despite this stronger demand, yields increased to 4.82% from 4.65%.  That's the opposite of what should have happened; the yield should have dropped if the bond prices were rising to meet the increased demand.  That is counterintuitive and unhealthy, and more bond investors should be nervous as those priced yields get closer to the EU's bailout offer of 5%.

The global economy is waiting for the next shoe to drop.  That's why gold is still heading up. 

Full disclosure:  Long GDX with covered calls and cash-covered short puts.