Thursday, July 02, 2015

Random Alfidi Musings for July 2015

Plenty of news items and local events have distracted me from my regular analytical work in recent weeks.  I should not allow such things to move me but the black swans flocking out of Greece and other places are a compelling spectacle.  Pushing aside the news flotsam leaves deeper currents at work.  I need to throw a few thoughts into the pond to see if they float.

Knowledge management practitioners bemoan the lack of metrics in their sector.  I have discovered plenty of metrics in human resources and information technology.  Those two sectors support the knowledge management capacity of any enterprise.  Combing their metrics should reveal some concepts worth formalizing.

Hedge funds that went long on Greek stocks or government bonds are now in regret mode.  Betting against them with short positions is not viable so long as the Greek stock market remains closed.  The Greek economy's structural problems are unsolvable until a post-euro hyperinflation runs its course.  Any Greek-flavored investment strategy is poisonous for years.  Bargain purchases of Greek-domiciled shipping stocks may be possible.  Those stocks will also be subject to the risk of further crashes in the price of oil and the Baltic Dry Index.

Financialization of everything means pension fund managers and endowment managers have no clue about their real risk exposure.  The clever people at major investment banks figured out how to offload their riskiest assets onto the Federal Reserve and the housing GSEs.  Repackaging these things for sale means the least clever buyers among institutional investors are stuck with garbage.  Money managers sitting on toxic mortgages will have short tenures after the next financial crisis.

My schedule will soon allow for a return to comments on specific companies.  The long stretches of haiku in recent weeks were never meant to be the sole content style for Alfidi Capital.  Stay tuned to see which retail investors want to badmouth me for criticizing their favorite ideas.