Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Alpha-D Update For 01/21/14

Alrighty, then.  My regular monthly portfolio review and alteration timeline was delayed by one day because yesterday was a federal holiday.  I believe the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King would be proud of my financial self-reliance.  Whatever.  Today is the first trading day after an options expiration weekend, so I had to look at my money.

My covered calls on GDX in my IRA were exercised when the market price of GDX rose through the strike price.  This is good news, as I had been forced to buy a bunch of GDX late last year when I wrote some cash-covered puts under that security.  I repurchased a much smaller amount of GDX to maintain a more normal allocation.  The rest of what I didn't commit remained as a slightly higher pile of cash in my IRA.  I still consider gold mining stocks to be a hard asset hedge but they are not my ideal preference.  I may add other hard asset hedges as they become affordable.

My covered calls on FXF in my IRA expired unexercised.  I renewed them for next month.  I consider the Swiss franc to be a well-managed currency and I am impressed with the way that country's central bank has stabilized its value.

I remain long GDX, FXA, and FXC in my taxable account.  I consider the Australian and Canadian currencies to be hedges against US dollar hyperinflation.  I have noticed significant pressures on those currencies from the relative strength of the dollar and euro but I consider that condition to be temporary.  I have also noticed inflationary concerns rising in Australia and Canada but I remain convinced that those nations will not do foolish things to devalue their currencies.  They don't have any quantitative easers like Bernanke or Yellen running their central banks.

In a departure from my investing pattern through much of 2013, I have sold covered calls on my holdings of GDX, FXA, and FXC in my taxable account.  My opportunity cost of not writing these calls last year was high.  I do run the risk of seeing these holdings called away but that is a risk I can tolerate for the next month.  I wanted to get back in the habit of generating cash from an options strategy, which has absolutely done very well for my net worth over the last decade.  I actually enjoy seeking volatility and risk provided I have tools to manage my exposure.

I maintain a long put position against FXE.  I still think that common currency is toast.  I do not expect the euro to last forever, let alone become an alternative to the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

I'm still sitting on piles of uncommitted cash.    I'm not buying into an overpriced US stock market.  I await a deflationary asset market crash, followed by a hyperinflationary policy response.  I am not in the top 1% but I have enough to live comfortably.  I anticipate radical changes in economic conditions and asset prices that will transport me far ahead of many other people I know.  I consider equities (and their ETF equivalents) in public storage, timber, mining, energy, and agriculture to be appropriate for my cash, along with equities in logistics sectors that service those sectors.  I just want to see heavily discounted prices.

I'm going to say this one more time.  What I do with my own money is not ever supposed to be some kind of advice or guidance for what other people do with their money.  I do not give financial advice to investors and I do not care what anyone else does with their money.  My decisions are in accord with my own goals and risk tolerance, which might as well be in another universe separate from the rest of humanity.  The world may observe my genius and marvel at my magnanimity.  That is all for now.  Go back to work, people.