Friday, March 30, 2012

Tosca Mining (TSMNF) Digs Tex-Mex Dirt From Vancouver

I got an unsolicited email from somebody who wants me to check out Tosca Mining (TSMNF), another penny stock from Vancouver, Canada.  This person didn't disclose whether they had a relationship with the company but they urged me to check out some analyst's video.  I don't waste time listening to someone else's analysis.  My own thinking is like so totally way better.

If you can follow the oddities of my post's title, you may be able to guess that Tosca is a Vancouver-based company digging a project in Texas near the Mexican border.  Many larger firms have tried here to no avail.  If all of those major operators couldn't find economically viable ore grades after two decades of exploratory drilling, I have no idea how a small driller is going to accomplish anything.  It's nice to see that the CEO and other execs are real geologists and miners.  The company has been around since at least 2007 according to its SEDAR filing history but presently has little success to show for its history.  Five years should be long enough for even lifelong miners to figure out that a property explored for decades probably has questionable value.

Please note that the share structure will eventually result in massive shareholder dilution if the company makes any progress towards operating a successful mine.  Really good news will make the share price rise but will also risk triggering activation of warrants; the new equity will thus dissipate over a larger number of shares.  The work done so far on site is very limited, with holes that have very small traces of mineralization.  The 43-101 estimate Tosca released last month has no estimate of proven and probable reserves.

The chance of success for Tosca's sole project is not strong enough to be worth my further attention.  I'd rather not risk massive dilution.

Full disclosure:  No position in TSMNF, ever.