Saturday, October 09, 2010

Unemployment Ready To Surpass 10%

Official unemployment figures are too optimistic by far but hardly anyone notices.  The official number has been hovering south of 10% for some months:

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down a net 95,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Such continuing weakness in the job market bodes ill for consumer spending in the holiday season.  We're starting to see anecdotal evidence for a slowdown in some logistics data.  Need proof?  LAX air freight volume is slipping.  Intermodal traffic on railroads has peaked.  I expect such reports to multiply between now and the end of 2010 as consumers continue to restrain purchaes made on credit