Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Uncle Warren Gets Bottom Call Wrong

Sorry, Mr. Buffett, but you're premature in calling the bottom of this Depression:

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who last year called the financial crisis an “economic Pearl Harbor,” said the U.S. economy has “hit a plateau at bottom.”


The Sage of Omaha is getting slow in his old age, as evidenced by the languishing performance of his railroad stocks and ConocoPhillips. The railroads he owns violate his preference for avoiding investments in companies with small debt loads.

Come on, Warren. You're smart enough to check rail car loading data. Have your staff look up container traffic from Asian ports and make note of the decline from last year. The Christmas shopping season will be a disaster for retailers and we'll be right back into a credit crunch for a not-so-happy new year.

Warren Buffett has been buying stocks, and I've been shorting the U.S. indexes. I've made a little money this year and Warren has lost a lot. I've also missed the big S&P rally because I'm convinced it's a prelude to a very large decline.