Monday, July 14, 2014

Recap of Anthony Alfidi on Benzinga PreMarket Prep in June 2014

The general public had the opportunity to hear me live on Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep webcast for June 16, 2014.  Anyone who missed it can catch the recorded version on Benzinga's YouTube channel.  The audio quality wasn't the best so some of my comments may not be crystal clear.  Let me briefly recap a few points you may have missed.  

I do not ever use technical analysis to make investment decisions.  It has no statistical validity in predicting stock market outcomes.  Academic research regards it as little more than cargo cult thinking.  I tried to understand it years ago but I eventually saw no value in using such random noise.  Warren Buffett's public comments on technical analysis are clear; he couldn't make sense of it as a teenager after turning the charts upside down and finding no different answers.  

I have not used accounting ratios like the quick ratio since the years immediately after graduate school.  They play an important role in corporate finance as KPIs.  Credit analysts for banks will find them handy.  They can't make much difference for me while central bank stimulus makes easy credit available to every business borrower, masking the problems that unhealthy businesses would otherwise reveal in accounting ratios.  I shall return to using these ratios when central banks cease their stimulus experiments.  

I bemoaned the state of the American consumer.  Our indebted middle class continues to blow hundreds of dollars on the newest models of smartphones that add only incremental capabilities.  Cheaper smartphones are just about to break the $100 price point with most of the functionality of today's elite Android models.  That's all most people need.  

I continue to seek hard asset hedges in my own portfolio.  I mentioned one possibility but I am still not willing to buy it while its price remains elevated.  I still like the shipping sector as a long-term investment but I'm not buying into that either.  Everything is just too expensive thanks to central bank intervention.  

I did not make any securities recommendations or give any personal financial advice for investors on the Benzinga webcast.  That's not my job and my readers know it.  

Benzinga's hosts were great.  They must be super-sharp to recognize my incredible genius.  I will enjoy expanding my reach through future webcasts with any broadcaster who wants me as a guest.