Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Alpha-D Update for 10/23/12

Today I finally pulled the trigger on an equity ETF position, although the underlying holding in the ETF is really a cash position.  I went long FXF, the Swiss franc ETF.  One more well-managed currency in a solid country is a hedge against the Fed's plan to devalue the U.S. dollar.

I have not changed my other ETF positions.  I am still long GDX, FXA, and FXC.  I did not write any option positions against those two currency ETFs this month because I'd rather not see volatility sell them away or add to my stake.  I did not add to or subtract from my GDX stake.

The covered calls I wrote last month on GDX expired unexercised, as did the cash-covered puts I wrote under FXF.  My expiring puts under FXF aren't in need of renewal as I now own a stake in FXF itself that is sufficient to give me more currency diversification.  I don't need any more or less of FXF for right now.

I wrote some covered calls on my new FXF position and on my GDX.  Writing calls on GDX has forced me to sell in the past but buying it back has been no big deal; the incidence of buying and selling has pretty much evened out price-wise and the cash flow from writing the options is nice to have.  I also wrote some cash-covered puts under GDX even though its price keeps falling.  If that triggers a purchase then so be it, because a larger gold position at a lower price will come in handy during the initial phases of the high inflation I expect to hit the U.S. economy.

This is a very simple strategy for complex market conditions that are on the verge of breaking into utter chaos.  Too many complacent portfolio managers are still actively managing equity mutual funds with an all-in approach, in the face of earnings disappointments, the U.S. fiscal cliff, and continuing bad news from Europe.  I will let them fail at this game.  My cash is ready to buy what they will be forced to disgorge in panic selling.