Wednesday, March 17, 2010

LTL Shakeout Ahead?

I continue to be intrigued by the long haul trucking industry.  LTL trucking in particular is a commoditized industry, with carriers increasingly forced to compete on price.  Smaller carriers have a tough time competing against the big truckers:

The owners of one in four truckload carriers say they may sell their company and leave the industry over the next 18 months, according to a survey by Transport Capital Partners.
(snip)

Larger truckload carriers are on the lookout for companies to acquire, the survey found. That would increase their own trucking capacity without adding to overall industry capacity.

So who among the big carriers might be looking to acquire?  Probably not YRC Worldwide (YRCW), as they are preoccupied with mere survival given their ongoing losses

How about Arkansas Best Corporation (ABFS)?  That would be a big stretch right now.  They'll have a lot more flexibility if the Teamsters agree to modify their National Master Freight Agreement with their ABF Freight System subsidiary, and they'll need that legroom if they continue to lose money (net income was negative $128mm in 2009).

I've still got my eye on Landstar (LSTR).  They've got $85mm in cash on the balance sheet, enough to buy smaller carriers, but with their stock near its 52-week high an all-stock acquisition would make sense. 

Nota bene:  Anthony J. Alfid has no positions in YRCW, ABFS, or LSTR at this time.