Tuesday, March 03, 2009

GE Going Bust?

GE's public assurances of health are starting to look suspiciously like those we heard from Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. just before they tanked:

General Electric Co. is trying to convince shareholders it can weather the economic storm, but investors keep running for cover.

In a letter to shareholders Tuesday, Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt reminded them that one of world's largest industrial conglomerates has taken strong steps to protect itself from a recession that is rapidly spreading around the globe and threatening its wide range of businesses, from jet engines to lending.


I can thank Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker for this very alarming insight into GE's immediate future. Investors are beating down the price of GE puts because they are very skeptical of the firm's near-term profitability.

GE might be one firm where a good bank / bad bank model might be appropriate. Separating the imploding financial unit, GE Capital, from the healthy industrial pieces might help those parts of GE that make things:

General Electric Co.'s aircraft engines business group received a $438.1 million contract modification from the U.S. Navy for fighter engines, the Defense Department said Tuesday.


I recently intended to buy some GE three-month CDs as part of my cash management strategy. My brokerage called me to let me know that my trade had been cancelled last week because the CDs had to be re-priced. Now I know why. I decided last week not to look this gift horse in the mouth and passed on my broker's offer to purchase the CDs with their new (and more attractive) yield. The hand of fate has intervened on my behalf. Yes, I know CDs are FDIC insured, but a GE bankruptcy would be more disruptive to the markets and the FDIC's balance sheet than even AIG's insolvency.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi does not hold any positions in GE. In 2008 he had put cash into CDs from GE Capital; those CDs matured before this post was published.