Oil traders are getting more bullish. The bulls may have read my recent writings, or they may be figuring out that bankrupt oil producers can't pump forever before turning off wells. Oklahoma is drowning in liquid black gold and drillers are drowning in red ink. Consolidation this year means fewer slick operators selling flimflam and dry holes next year.
US consumers are spending again. People who went broke during the holidays are now counting pennies saved on lower gasoline prices. They spend those pennies with abandon. Watch your neighbors who aren't saving; they won't survive the onrushing recession. Their homes will be for sale upon foreclosure and I might be waiting with a check in hand.
Franklin Resources' Mark Mobius likes Chinese stock bargains. He misreads garbage as a bargain. Western investors who aren't from Asian bloodlines will never understand the false fronts that Asian financial markets present. Dopey fund managers are born to get clobbered after they buy Chinese state-sponsored Ponzi schemes.
Oil ministers will talk through their mutual pain. Expect lots of crying, wailing, and whining about an oil market that is out of control. Emerging markets got more than they expected when Saudi pumping wrecked their capital accounts. The major oil producers could have used their dollar reserves to diversify away from oil production in the face of UN COP21's coming wealth redistribution scheme. Instead they chose to maintain kleptocratic rentier states and defend their currencies. No one in the developed West should cry for the oil countries that proved too weak to stand up to the Saudis and make their own production cuts.
Presidents Day sales don't apply to political campaign contributions. A dollar for your favorite candidate does not go farther over a holiday weekend.