Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Fed Lowers Its Own Bar, Fooling Everyone But Me

The Fed gets today's "Too Clever by Half" award from Alfidi Capital for its latest announcement on inflation policy:

Federal Reserve policy makers introduced a long-term U.S. inflation estimate, with most officials aiming to anchor public expectations at a 2 percent rate.
(snip)

The introduction of a long-term inflation goal helps bring the Fed closer to the central banks of the euro region, U.K. and other countries that set targets for price increases. The forecast contrasts with the warnings of some economists that record U.S. budget deficits and injections of liquidity by the Fed risk causing inflation to spiral in coming years.

Relax, nothing to see here. It's another false flag the Fed has dropped to pay lip service to its inflation-fighting mandate. There's no way, no how that the Fed can meet this 2% target after it issues the trillions in new money needed to fund endless federal deficits.

I've written about this before, so why beat a dead horse? Partly because it's fun. Partly because it indicates an acknowledgement that the Fed will have to reverse course at some point and raise interest rates (unless a bond market collapse suddenly restores the yield curve to a more normal slope). And partly because this enormous divergence of policy from practice strengthens the argument for owning more of something that responds well to inflation: gold.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is long IAU and GDX with covered calls.