Thursday, February 19, 2009

Almost Time to Bottom-Feed

One relatively easy way to make money in Great Depression 2.0 is by purchasing distressed assets. J.C. Flowers knows a good deal when they see one:

Christopher Flowers, whose private-equity firm bought a stake in California’s failed IndyMac Bank, said “low-life grave dancers like me” stand to make “a tremendous fortune” from the financial crisis.
(snip)

“Governments everywhere -- this government and around the world -- are going to own a lot of stuff, and they are going to be not very adroit, not very commercial,” Flowers said. “There’s going to be a lot of money to be made around the edges of this thing.”

He correctly recognizes that government stewards of private assets will be more than willing to unload them to buyers at bargain prices. Bottom feeders like him and me will soon have our day as markets hit lows they haven't seen since the mid-90s:

Profits dropped 33 percent on average at the 394 companies in the S&P 500 that reported fourth-quarter earnings since Jan. 12, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The period is poised to be the sixth straight quarter of decreasing profits, the longest streak on record.


Read that last excerpt, permabulls, and then explain how you can predict a market recovery in the second half of 2009 when earnings declines show no signs of amelioration. Fat chance! Dow 5000 here we come. My short plays remain in place until then.