Thursday, February 12, 2009

Buying the Rumor on Mortgages

The DJIA was trading down by as much as 2.5% today until it closed with a tiny loss. What gives? Apparently the lack of detail in the Treasury's bank rescue plan was beginning to spook some big-shot investors:

This meeting known as the "Goldman Sachs rountable" took place just hours after Geithner's speech (and the dismal market reaction) on Tuesday at the headquarters of Goldman Sachs in lower Manhattan.

Around 20 of the firm's biggest hedge fund and private equity clients from around the country showed up-a testament to just how concerned financial industry insiders are about what few details geithner presented.


The Plunge Protection Team apparently has a plan B, with an uncredited assist from Government Sachs. Hints at troubled homeowner rescues are beginning to appear:

In a major break from existing aid programs, the plan under consideration would seek to help homeowners before they fall into arrears on their loans. Current programs only assist borrowers that are already delinquent.


That announcement came just in time to snap the market back up. Magic! Maybe I give some people too much credit. Maybe the neat ideas hatched by private investors in a GS conference room can't be translated at the speed of light into a newsworthy leak. Maybe those same investors can't order their traders to buy into the market on that same leak. Oh, perish the thought (sarcasm filter off).

On the other hand, note the second bullet point in the article on the hasty GS meeting:

Ken Griffen, the founder of Citadel, stressed the need not merely to fix the prices of the securitized bonds, but also that any plan must stabilize the root cause of the problem - the mortgages themselves. And he came up with several ideas to spur homeownership that could revive the housing market.


Wow! He knew exactly what kind of new plan would move the market back up! I bolded some stuff in the above excerpt. This "mortgage plan under consideration" went from conference room suggestion to tentative government program in less time than it takes an investment banker to scan the WSJ for deal action.

Concidence? You be the judge.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi does not hold a position in GS. He was not invited to their private conference either. Maybe next time.