Working Through 2018 Backlog

Hello there, faithful readers. In case you've been wondering why my posts have been sporadic for some time, you can wonder no more. I have in fact been quite busy since 2018 with some side projects that have taken up more of my time than I anticipated. I may soon have some very intriguing things to offer as a result.

I have been exploring some technology platforms that can expand the reach of Alfidi Capital. The digital revolution now makes it easier than ever to generate and publish audio and video products. Incorporating these things into a blog format is challenging, so I continue to review platforms that can leverage my brand in different media.

You all know I am a terrific writer. I have done a significant amount of research that should make for some longer written pieces. Making them long enough to stand alone as books is the easy part. The hard part is finding the right self-publishing outlet online that maximizes my marketing reach. In other words, I've got some books coming, and I will let you know when they are ready.

Startup entrepreneurs still seek my wisdom. Turning such fleeting relationships into sweat equity is less of a challenge when the right incubators and accelerators offer launch platforms. I know where this is going to go and the rest of you do not. Suffice it to say that Silicon Valley action is definitely for me.

Rest assured, Alfidi Capital is alive and well. I sill soon publish a backlog of articles covering tech events I have attended since 2018. The demands on my time increase as my reputation brings new insights and opportunities. Just remember how lucky you all are to have access to my infinite wisdom for free here on the Alfidi Capital Blog.

The Haiku of Finance for 05/24/16

Working very hard
Long time since last haiku post
Need a longer day

The Haiku of Finance for 12/23/15

Festivus grievance
Dumb people love lame products
Complaint for Wall Street

Alfidi Capital Airs Grievances For Festivus 2015

Attention Wall Street and the rest of the financial services sector. Today is Festivus and you know what that means. I've got a lot of problems with you people, and you're going to hear about it! You have all disappointed me very much this past year. I was spewing lots of Festivus grievances this morning on my Twitter account and now here comes the main event.

First of all, financial commentators who should know better kept casting the Federal Reserve's prospective interest rate change as something either "hawkish" against inflation or "dovish" for GDP and employment growth. Nobody even bothered to track the shift in the Yellen Fed's thinking as something where any change would lead to a return to normalcy. Wall Street disappoints me when its public mouthpieces can't slice the "layer cake" messaging.

Fund management companies continue to roll out garbage securities products. All of the leveraged and inverse ETFs out there can't possibly outperform the simpler passive ETFs but hardly anyone wants to state the obvious. I'm happy to say it myself. Simple, passive, broad market ETFs are cheap and efficient. Boutique but still passive ETFs for sectors and commodities have their place as hedges. Complex, leveraged, and "active" ETFs are expensive wastes of time.

The sector is still hooked on active management as an excuse to charge an arm and a leg for "outperformance" that never happens. Come on, folks, indexing sounded the death knell for active investment management decades ago but fund managers are still in denial. Robo-advisers are now completing the circle by cutting the costs of personalized risk management down to a few basis points. Financial advisers and their back offices will still be in denial long after AIs have taken their jobs.

Enough with the hedge fund craze already. It was cute to watch math PhDs play with algorithms for a couple of years, but now an entire enabling subculture has grown up around these stupid products. Hedge funds are nothing more than elaborate schemes for transferring wealth from dumb rich people to clever rich people. Cheap capital helps enable this stupidity. Illiquidity in a market crisis will end it.

I would gladly challenge any Wall Street CEO to a Festivus feat of strength because I know I'll win. I train for this stuff day and night. Alfidi Capital exists to shove a shiny Festivus pole right up Wall Street's crawl space.

Giving Thanks For Stuff In 2015

Thanksgiving in 2015 means I get to watch the rest of America slack off and indulge. I did some of that too today but my brain is still engaged 100% in the genius of Alfidi Capital. It's about time that I recognized some recent inspirations for my genius and give them thanks.

I'll thank the steady drip of followers who add to my Web brand presence when they republish my content. Smart people know quality when they see it. I just can't help it when the raw genius radiates from my presence. Life is best when we fulfill our destinies.

I might as well thank a couple of recent critics who called me names on social media channels. They kept my Web brand in circulation for a few more media cycles. I really enjoy being the target of ill-informed, ad hominem attacks that feed my ego. The First Amendment gives every American the right to speak their minds. I am thankful that even small-minded people notice what I have to say.

I must especially thank a handful of female friends whose constructive feedback is helping me abandon my previous sexism. Careless word choices do have real negative impacts. I am now much more careful than I was earlier this year when commenting on gender subjects. Women don't need some random loudmouth stereotyping them into irrelevance when they deserve more in life. They do in fact need men as advocates who include them as equals, whether it's at the Thanksgiving dinner table or in the corporate boardroom. I have a lot of advocacy to do with the rest of my life.

In years past I've stated that the world should be thankful for my existence. I still see nothing wrong with that even if the world has no thanks to give me. It is unrealistic to expect much of the planet to think like me. I am still morally obligated to be true to myself. I can thank my favorite philosophers - Stoics like Marcus Aurelius and Seneca, plus Immanuel Kant and his Categorical Imperative - who reminded me how to live when I reviewed their works this year. My life is still my own, but my work should enhance humanity's moral worth.

Finally, I thank the Founders of our country who wrote the US Constitution and its Bill of Rights. The rule of law and the elevation of individual freedom enable me to run Alfidi Capital in a manner of my choosing. I could not have this type of lifestyle in other countries where busybodies, thugs, or authoritarians would silence me for speaking my mind. America is awesome and so am I. Happy Thanksgiving, America.

The Haiku of Finance for 11/25/15

Grateful time of year
Spewing financial genius
Planet should thank me

Adjusting My Voice On LinkedIn, Without Sarcasm

Sarcasm has long been one of my favorite accents. It can be appropriate in sparing amounts. It can also be too much of a good thing. Branding myself as all sarcastic, all the time, in front of all audiences has outlived its usefulness. Observing my personal brand through someone else's eyes made me realize it needs some polish.

I made some significant wording changes to my LinkedIn profile. I removed all of the sarcastic references to my former employers in finance and my alumni associations. I re-worded those experiences to describe my roles there in a more balanced way. I cannot be angry forever. Permanent anger is not a healthy way to see the world or approach people. It no longer matters whether privileged people treated me poorly. Bad people will always exist and they do not belong in my life. The bitterness I reserved for them on my LinkedIn profile allowed them to remain as burdens in my life. It is time to move on to greener pastures.

Readers will still see my Financial Sarcasm Roundups every week or so on this blog. I can still reserve my sharpest barbs for news makers whose affronts are too egregious for polite commentary. It is a weapon I should use sparingly rather than habitually. Maybe someone important will surprise me by making a smart decision for a change.

Public image is a component of leadership. Consider two different US Army generals in World War II: Joseph Stilwell and Dwight Eisenhower. Gen Stilwell's nickname was "Vinegar Joe" due to his penchant for sarcastic, prejudiced comments. Historians regarded him as marginally successful leading the China Burma India Theater, but he could have accomplished much more if he had gotten along with others. Gen. Eisenhower spent years cultivating an optimistic, confident outlook. His personal skills paid off in building the multinational coalition that liberated Europe. Gen. Stilwell is mostly a historical footnote today. Gen. Eisenhower's victories live forever in glory. How they viewed themselves and the world determined how they led their people.

One of the Internet memes going around is built on Ayesha A. Siddiqi's great Twitter quote, "Be the person you needed when you were younger." A growing child doesn't need a steady diet of vinegar. Optimism and confidence are much healthier.

The Haiku of Finance for 10/13/15

Redesign website
Stark layout for finance talk
Bold, clear, and honest

Alfidi Capital Web Presence Redesign 2015

My long-planned Web redesign is ready for its public debut. I have relaunched the Alfidi Capital main site, the Alfidi Capital Blog, and Third Eye OSINT with new layouts. I spent long hours imagining the future, and only a couple of hours making that future happen.

The background colors and text colors on all three Web properties now match. White backgrounds and black text have a minimalist aesthetic that makes the sites look like hard copy print. I wanted the design to have the same authority as permanently archived written words. I have always disdained fancy bells and whistles. Now I take that consideration to an extreme. I elevate substance over style.

I may adjust the font sizes and shading in the next few days to make my words easier to read. I am also considering different colors for Web links, but I will likely end up making the link text a classic blue shade. Blue hyperlinks recall the early days of the World Wide Web in the mid-1990s when linked knowledge was a brand new concept. Everything old can be new again.

I made no changes to my social media channels. Those will always be confined to the color schemes and layout of their platform companies like Facebook. I don't need to change them even if I so desired. They work just fine in their present forms.

The most significant change I made is to the narrative content on several Alfidi Capital pages. I altered a small number of sentences to make them more readable. Most importantly, I completely removed any and all text that was sexist, derogatory, or otherwise negative. I now appreciate an imperative to be as inclusive and positive as possible. I may be sarcastic sometimes, but I can do so more gently. Optimism attracts people who want to hear brand new ideas. The words we express reflect our character. I can still be provocative by criticizing things that go wrong in finance. Now I can be original while staying on a moral high road.

I have made an editorial decision not to alter any controversial language on any previous blog posts. They exist in their past forms for a reason, mainly to capture changes in my thinking over the years and my real-time reactions to events. We don't get do-overs for old things in life, but we do get second chances to do new things right. This is Alfidi Capital, version 2.0, more elegant than ever.

Taking The Tech Sector Gender Gap Seriously

The gender gap in the technology sector persists. The facts are available to everyone. Conference photos show far more male attendees than females. I see it myself, not counting the "booth babe" tradition that is either on its way out or destined to be augmented with "booth dudes" for equity. Fewer women pursue tech careers than men and they are generally paid less even when they have comparable education and experience. This state of affairs cannot hold forever in a society that pledges "liberty and justice for all" to its national colors.

I don't always discuss gender seriously on this blog. I usually mention it in the same breath as my awesome manliness, resembling a satirical Stephen Colbert approach to truthiness. A lot of people haven't been getting the joke. I used to think it was because I wasn't funny enough. Now I'm thinking it may not be funny at all. Members of both genders have caused me major problems in my career and that is why I must now work alone. My solitary efforts have provoked plenty of people who certainly deserve ridicule for their poor economic decisions. I have not shied away from criticizing the rich and poor alike. I must now address the unintended consequences of inequitable language.

More men are asking women what they can do to close the gender gap in tech careers. Women experts at the Commonwealth Club in October 2015 let us know what we can do, and I was in attendance to hear the message. Well folks, I am not one to back down from a challenge. If real men are supposed to step up and do the right thing, then by golly I need to be out in front. You won't hear any more sexist remarks on my Web properties in the future. If I need blog photos to illustrate demand for my compelling expertise at tech conferences, the photos won't include booth babes. My raw genius is powerful enough without photographic proof. I will do all that I can to encourage female acquaintances to attend local tech events, and they don't have to thank me. No one ever owes me anything. Paying it forward is supposed to be Silicon Valley's ethos anyway, but a lot of men in the Valley's insular VC culture somehow didn't get the memo.

Revising a few lines of text on the Alfidi Capital main site is long overdue and shouldn't take me more than a couple of days. Making the rest of the tech and financial sectors more accommodating to women will take longer. Men like me who dislike unfairness in business can no longer exclude women who would otherwise be natural allies in changing America for the better. I cannot change our society all by myself. Don't wish me luck; I won't need it. The rest of America needs that luck more.

Random Alfidi Musings for July 2015

Plenty of news items and local events have distracted me from my regular analytical work in recent weeks.  I should not allow such things to move me but the black swans flocking out of Greece and other places are a compelling spectacle.  Pushing aside the news flotsam leaves deeper currents at work.  I need to throw a few thoughts into the pond to see if they float.

Knowledge management practitioners bemoan the lack of metrics in their sector.  I have discovered plenty of metrics in human resources and information technology.  Those two sectors support the knowledge management capacity of any enterprise.  Combing their metrics should reveal some concepts worth formalizing.

Hedge funds that went long on Greek stocks or government bonds are now in regret mode.  Betting against them with short positions is not viable so long as the Greek stock market remains closed.  The Greek economy's structural problems are unsolvable until a post-euro hyperinflation runs its course.  Any Greek-flavored investment strategy is poisonous for years.  Bargain purchases of Greek-domiciled shipping stocks may be possible.  Those stocks will also be subject to the risk of further crashes in the price of oil and the Baltic Dry Index.

Financialization of everything means pension fund managers and endowment managers have no clue about their real risk exposure.  The clever people at major investment banks figured out how to offload their riskiest assets onto the Federal Reserve and the housing GSEs.  Repackaging these things for sale means the least clever buyers among institutional investors are stuck with garbage.  Money managers sitting on toxic mortgages will have short tenures after the next financial crisis.

My schedule will soon allow for a return to comments on specific companies.  The long stretches of haiku in recent weeks were never meant to be the sole content style for Alfidi Capital.  Stay tuned to see which retail investors want to badmouth me for criticizing their favorite ideas.

Alfidi Capital Headed In New Directions For 2015

New Year's Day brings the perfect excuse to announce business changes.  I have carefully reviewed my activities in 2014 and I am about to make my business even more compelling than ever.  

The first change is the discontinuation of the monthly Alpha-D portfolio updates I've published for several years.  They have increasingly become a waste of effort.  I've made very few portfolio changes in recent years other than writing covered options.  The financial markets remain impossible to evaluate fairly.  Central bank intervention has ruined price discovery.  I will continue writing about individual stocks, and I will always disclose whether I have a position in anything I cover.  I just don't plan on actually taking any new positions until central bank intervention ends.  I can only hedge my existing positions until some market breakdown provides me with bargain purchases.  

The next major change is a planned redesign to the Alfidi Capital main site.  I planned a new design in 2014 but I did not execute it because it had to be perfect.  I now have the perfect layout in mind.  I take my time because I have high standards.  Expect to see a snazzy cosmetic update soon enough.  The number of site pages will remain the same and the links to my previously published reports will remain active.  

Some things will never change.  I will be as sarcastic as ever.  I will keep hurling obnoxious insults at fools who deserve opprobrium.  I will keep writing haiku and limericks.  I will continue to max out whatever investment opportunities exist in these heavily manipulated markets.  In fact, I made the maximum annual IRA contribution for 2015 of $5500 today.  The money will grow until I am an old fogey, provided I can find worthwhile investments in this year.  I will of course remain irresistible to attractive women, who cannot help but throw themselves at me in public.  The new year 2015 brings new chances for yours truly to score big in so many ways.

Alfidi Capital Smack Talk for Thanksgiving 2014

Thanksgiving isn't just about turkey.  It's about women going shopping and men being lazy, for most Americans.  It's really all about Alfidi Capital laying the smack-down on everything that does not comport with extreme genius.

I give thanks for not living in some smelly dirt-hole country like the ones at the bottom of the Transparency International and Heritage Foundation indexes.  Those are the filters I use to sort out the resource sector companies I evaluate, much as a master chef uses a strainer to drain the brine away from a pot of pasta.

I suppose I should be thankful for living in San Francisco but sometimes this town does try my patience.  The idiots I see at the Commonwealth Club disprove the common assumption that education enhances intellect.  The views of the Pacific Ocean, downtown skyscrapers, and the Golden Gate Bridge make up for the periodic nonsense emanating from over-educated humans.

I am not thankful for activists determined to make all levels of our government less responsive to citizens and more of a burden upon the economy.  This goes for both the Left and Right.  Busybodies can take their health insurance mandates, sunset-exempt regulations, and faith-based initiatives to one of those loser countries at the bottom of the Transparency International and Heritage Foundation indexes.  People who enjoy living in unfree nations are welcome to move away from me.  I would be thankful for their absence.

The University of Notre Dame and University of San Francisco do not deserve my thanks.  I have degrees from each of those schools and those parchments have never helped me in life.  Several fellow alumni have gone out of their way to harm me professionally because I have spoken negatively about the schools in public.  I couldn't care less.  I remain unscathed.  Bring it on, haters.  I will outlast all of my detractors.

I continue to thank myself for cutting off relations with people who turned out to be losers.  Former acquaintances who revealed themselves as idiots were putting me at risk with their drama.  I sometimes see them in public and I have reminded myself to keep them at a distance so I'm not infected by their insanity.  Yes, fellow members of the financial services community, I mean you in particular.  Craziness is contagious in San Francisco and I don't need to catch it.

You should all be thankful that I am the greatest financial analyst you've ever read.  Don't waste your lives trying to outperform me because that's impossible.  Spend your time wisely, basking in the glow of my eternal wisdom.  Women in particular should be thankful that I am so extremely handsome.  They usually find me irresistible but they will have to wait until after Thanksgiving.  They can send me hot photos of themselves to tide me over until we meet in person.  That would make for a very happy Thanksgiving.  

Living and Giving Among San Francisco's Nouveau Riche

I have been a San Franciscan for just over a decade.  There are times when I am tempted to believe that is one decade too long.  I never give in to this temptation because I am destined to show San Franciscans the path to enlightenment.  The local nouveau riche class is still finding its way to acceptance.

The New Yorker article "California Screaming" is the East Coast Establishment's way of looking down its nose at San Francisco's newly rich.  That magazine's circulation base is mostly old money trust fund babies who turn into full-time salon intellectuals, plus the libraries and medical offices serving a pretentious crowd.  No self-respecting East Coast WASP would ever agonize about how to bring public policy innovation to the lower classes.  Such trite notions are beneath them.  They would simply write a check to their favorite charity and get back to shopping in the Hamptons.  The Bay Area fetish for "getting involved" in solving poor people's problems must amuse the monied elites to no end at the other end of our continent.

We do things differently out here in the Bay Area.  I have observed the One Percent of this nine-county MSA long enough to understand that their social cognizance is precisely calculated.  The lyrics are a bit different out here but the song remains the same.  The social climbers on the East Coast would recognize the tune even if they deign not to hum along.  The "do something" impulse in the Bay Area means the nouveau riche tech elite translates its skill set into charitable outreach that . . . further enhances its skill set.

Full Circle Fund is the leading exhibit for the Bay Area elite's attitude toward charity.  Its members pay a premium for the privilege of helping accelerate local charities' tech adoption curves.  That effort, plus some high-end socializing, is a big career enhancer for mid-level corporate project managers in greater San Francisco.  I have nothing against Full Circle Fund, and I would probably join them if I thought my skills fit their needs.  The fund and its non-profit clients need well-pedigreed managers whose social connections translate into donations and prestigious board memberships.  They probably have no use for a sarcastic financial analyst, like yours truly.  I would just get in the way of their latest dynamic change initiatives.

The local social climbers who are not techies have their own philanthropic settings, aping the best salons on the East Coast.  I am a longtime member of BRAVO!, Symphonix, and ENCORE! where San Francisco's most pretentious yuppies cultivate a very selective meat market.  Quite a few of these people have blood connections to their fellow snobs on the Atlantic seaboard.  Some members of those organizations have asked me to leave over the years because they disapprove of my social class origins.  I refuse to leave, and that is my declaration of moral superiority over nouveau riche class condescension.  They need me around more than they will ever know.

San Francisco's socioeconomic elite has always ranked as the younger sibling to the New York and Boston elites whose ancestors gave the United States of America its founding mythos.  The locals are good at copying the East's social rituals but a copy never has the fidelity of the original.  Tech-oriented philanthropy is The City's native elite language.  Local branches of Eastern families will never grok the tech elite's culture or allow its practitioners to penetrate their hallowed drawing rooms.  That's too bad.  They're missing a decent sales pitch for the latest gadgetry.  

Alfidi Capital in Direct Capital's Point Blank and YoPro Wealth

The genius of Alfidi Capital is reaching into new corners of social media.  Two digital media sites have picked up my exclusive commentary on common-sense financial solutions this week.  Check it out.

Direct Capital's Point Blank blog published my brief discussion of a business loan.  I do track the banking sector and it's obvious to me that a bank is not going to risk a loan on someone whose income does not meet their internal criteria.  I disagree with some of the other commenters who claimed that a business owner should rely upon their business plan and financial forecasts to secure a loan.  That might be fine for a borrower with an established credit history and personal assets that can secure the bank loan.  I'm pretty sure a brand new college graduate with no income, assets, or credit history will have a tough time getting a conventional bank loan with nothing but their startup's fundraising pitch deck, unless of course a parent co-signs the loan.

YoPro Wealth shared my insights on the basics of investing.  I lived within my means for many years until I had enough capital to say goodbye to bad employers.  Living frugally is the kind of habit that turns an ordinary working stiff into The Millionaire Next Door.  It takes a while but starting sooner and saving more accelerates the date of financial emancipation.  I am not a millionaire yet but there are probably a few in my neighborhood.  There are certainly more than a few of them in San Francisco.

I do not give personal financial advice and I would prefer that social media publishers refrain from describing my wisdom as "advice," but I don't control their editorial habits.  The lessons I share are hard-won from my own life.  I don't need a securities license to showcase common sense.  My musings used to be common sense for many people but those days are long gone.  It falls to me to relight the world's lantern.

Recap of Anthony Alfidi on Benzinga PreMarket Prep in June 2014

The general public had the opportunity to hear me live on Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep webcast for June 16, 2014.  Anyone who missed it can catch the recorded version on Benzinga's YouTube channel.  The audio quality wasn't the best so some of my comments may not be crystal clear.  Let me briefly recap a few points you may have missed.  

I do not ever use technical analysis to make investment decisions.  It has no statistical validity in predicting stock market outcomes.  Academic research regards it as little more than cargo cult thinking.  I tried to understand it years ago but I eventually saw no value in using such random noise.  Warren Buffett's public comments on technical analysis are clear; he couldn't make sense of it as a teenager after turning the charts upside down and finding no different answers.  

I have not used accounting ratios like the quick ratio since the years immediately after graduate school.  They play an important role in corporate finance as KPIs.  Credit analysts for banks will find them handy.  They can't make much difference for me while central bank stimulus makes easy credit available to every business borrower, masking the problems that unhealthy businesses would otherwise reveal in accounting ratios.  I shall return to using these ratios when central banks cease their stimulus experiments.  

I bemoaned the state of the American consumer.  Our indebted middle class continues to blow hundreds of dollars on the newest models of smartphones that add only incremental capabilities.  Cheaper smartphones are just about to break the $100 price point with most of the functionality of today's elite Android models.  That's all most people need.  

I continue to seek hard asset hedges in my own portfolio.  I mentioned one possibility but I am still not willing to buy it while its price remains elevated.  I still like the shipping sector as a long-term investment but I'm not buying into that either.  Everything is just too expensive thanks to central bank intervention.  

I did not make any securities recommendations or give any personal financial advice for investors on the Benzinga webcast.  That's not my job and my readers know it.  

Benzinga's hosts were great.  They must be super-sharp to recognize my incredible genius.  I will enjoy expanding my reach through future webcasts with any broadcaster who wants me as a guest.  

Alfidi Capital Is All About Analysis

I socialize extensively in the San Francisco Bay Area.  In the last couple of years I've had a hard time explaining myself when people walk up to me in person and ask me what I'm all about.  I often default to saying "I'm a blogger," but I've realized lately that's a suboptimal answer.

I blog a lot but that's not all that I do.  My two blogs are a means for communicating my original thinking.  I publish longer research pieces, most of which are pretty darn hilarious.  Most bloggers shy away from longer reports, so "blogging" can't be my only professional function.

I hesitate to call myself a "writer" because that begs a categorization that may not be appropriate.  Writing is the main thing that I do, and I'd like to make it the only thing I do at some point.  I just need to get away from people more often once networking ceases to be useful to me.

I do not believe I can call myself a "journalist" because that profession is supposed to be objective.  Journalists aren't normally supposed to take sides or inject their personal opinions, but I do that all the time. Journalists also don't publish graphics, presentations, or spreadsheets.  I publish those tools to illustrate my thinking about serious subjects.  I approach my work from an academic perspective because I like developing new theoretical approaches.  Journalists typically don't publish frameworks for experiments.

I am definitely an "investor" but saying that as an introduction sometimes prompts people to ask me whether I work with other investors.  I then have to reiterate the things I disclose in my FAQ and legal disclaimers.  I don't work with anyone, except when I invest my own money and time in a private company.  I don't take on outside investments from clients.  I don't arrange deals or take pieces of transactions.  I don't make any recommendations.  Once I convince people that I invest only for myself, some hustler will usually try to sell me something.  That kind of irritation is why I want to do less networking and more writing.

One more intriguing description I could adopt is "content curator," but I think that's premature.  This new profession applies to people who curate content for other organizations that become their clients.  Large enterprises employ content curators along with their webmasters to ensure their brand story is consistent across multiple product lines and geographies.  I only curate content that I generate myself.  I retain complete ownership of everything I create.  My storage needs are limited; my branding is straightforward.  Content curation gets the Alfidi Capital message out but I cannot and will not perform that role for anyone else.  I have a strict no-client business model.  I will never curate someone else's content.

I think the best description for what I do is "analyst."  That word encompasses blogging, writing, journalistic editorializing, investing, and content curation.  I do some aspects of all of those things and mix them up as I please.  Identifying as an analyst also does not preclude public speaking engagements.  I like being on stage in front of a crowd and more professional events are asking me to speak than ever before.

Analysts who work for enterprises that sell regulated financial products must hold securities registrations.  My analytical work does not sell any securities products at all.  Any representations on behalf of Alfidi Capital are my own thinking about where my own money belongs in the world.  Other investors' situations are of no interest to me because no one can invest with me.  The great thing about proprietary analytical work is that it doesn't have to be useful to anyone but myself.  The public cannot regard my analytical work as financial advice because I don't sell securities or maintain fiduciary relationships.   Others may find my work intriguing, and thanks to the First Amendment they are free to read it.

My Twitter header now leads with "analyst" instead of "blogger" and I'll make more such changes to my social media presence as I see fit.  I liked getting straight A's in school and I succeeded at that much of the time.  Just call me triple-A . . . Anthony "Analyst" Alfidi.  I'll try that line out at cocktail parties to see if people grok it faster than the other terms I mentioned above.  

Alfidi Capital Publishes Special Report: Commonwealth Club Matching Game

I have just published a new report at Alfidi Capital.  This new one is the "Commonwealth Club Matching Game" on the page for Free Special Reports.  Go take a look at it right now.  It does not relate directly to the financial markets but it is a way to keep score on the intellectual life of San Franciscans.

My regular readers know that I sometimes bemoan the lack of intellectual capacity among the audience members at Commonwealth Club events.  I have decided to do something about this sad state of affairs.  I cannot intervene directly in the Club because I do not donate enough money to rank with big shots.  I therefore cannot enforce decorum during Club events by demanding that audience members refrain from pontificating.  These people must stick to asking intelligent questions and my satirical little game can help make that point.

If I can make this game go viral among pseudo-intellectuals in San Francisco, it may shame them into displaying less self-absorption when they open their mouths at the Club.  That's a lot to ask of these people but someone has to get the ball rolling.  It might as well be me.  I set the game rules to make myself the ultimate winner every time because I am by definition the answer to stupid losers in American society.  It's my game, for crying out loud.

I believe this game will become quite popular among critical thinkers who really do want to learn from the Commonwealth Club's distinguished guests.  It may annoy some people but that's okay.  I don't mind annoying people for a good cause.  

The Magic Of URL Shorteners

Here's a minor policy change for Alfidi Capital.  I've been using TinyURL to shorten the links I've posted to Twitter and other social media sites.  I'm changing that to Google's Goo.gl URL shortener as of today.  Google's tool economizes on text; it has much shorter character length than Tiny URL and only a few other tools are shorter (like Hootsuite's Ow.ly).

The more important reason to change is the advantage Goo.gl delivers for integration with the rest of my social media presence.  It offers tracking tools that should indicate which of my links gain the most traction.  It is designed to work with the other Google tools I use, specifically Blogger and AdSense.  Other URL shorteners may eventually run into integration problems with Google's products.  

Even the US government is getting into the URL shortening act with Go.USA.gov.  The links to energy market data from DOE can get unwieldy but I don't plan on using this particular government product.  I don't get the rationale for creating a new government site instead of using existing private sector solutions like Goo.gl.  Google's search tools already power plenty of government databases, so using that company's free shortening tool would be a natural way to track traffic.  I can't count on government solutions to follow some common sense path.  

URL shorteners are part of the magic of the Interwebs.

Deconstructing The State Of The Union 2014

I listened to tonight's State of the Union address on NPR.  I shall repost the comments I made in real time on my Facebook wall.  I made minor edits for typos and clarity.  My stream-of-consciousness musings follow.  I speak solely in my capacity as a private citizen, and my comments do not reflect in any way upon my affiliation with any organization or entity.  This is how I roll.

State of the Union on NPR . . . let's listen in . . .

"Rebounding housing market . . ." due to Fed ZIRP . . . but redirected FDI from China to US is correct.

"Let's Move (obesity) and Joining Forces (veterans) . . ." for once, I agree.

"Trade promotion . . ." historically has always been bipartisan. NAFTA was a success story.

"Basic research . . ." lots of IP already on shelves at federal lab consortium. Why not put the six new tech hubs next to the biggest labs?

"Energy independence / natural gas . . . " true for now but shale wells have steep decline rates.  I see these all the time in investment presentations.  US has maybe 20-30 year window to use NG as bridge fuel.

"Immigration . . ." plays to high-tech business lobby eager to train HB-1 engineers cheaply and import lower-cost labor, keeping wages under pressure.  Contentious only in border states.

"Unemployment / education . . ." nature of work is changing to piecemeal, education transforming to MOOCs.  Hard to design top-down solutions to either from policymakers accustomed to government employment.  I can't see a federal solution to this obsolescence.

"Race to top (education) . . ." still a traditional K-12 state-owned solution.  Just like No Child Left Behind, ignores MOOC revolution driven by entrepreneurial disruption.

Repeat meme "let's come together . . ." but where was togetherness in multiple budget / cliff negotiations?

Note to self:  I need a raise.

Hard to raise wages when labor market is still slack.  Will federal contractors in Afghanistan have to pay locals equivalent in US wages?

"My RA (retirement account) . . ." need more details.

"Health care . . ." ACA still seems like a very complicated way of expanding insurance pools with no reference to underlying actuarial calculations.  Cost controls still not adequate and health care sector likes it that way, which is why surgery and pharma are still hugely expensive in US.

"Afghanistan . . ." I assure you US is not leaving in 2014.

"Fighting Al-Qaeda . . ." not the whole reason for continued operations.  Watch China's moves in Africa. Sleight-of-hand stalking horse, sort of.

"Iran's program . . ." Tehran has stated a different interpretation. Expect a repeat confrontation.

"New sanctions bill veto . . ." veiled message to AIPAC saying "trust me."

"Asia-Pacific . . ." far longer verbiage than messages about Europe and Ukraine.  Veiled message to Beijing: US will not leave Asia.

"Veterans . . ." start by digitizing VA records management to speed up case processing!

Hooah.  When in doubt, thank a veteran.

Closing rhetoric was Reaganesque, hitting all the right notes much like his convention renomination speech.

GOP up next . . . now hear this . . .

For crying out loud, this woman's rhetoric is flat and uninspiring. No wonder the GOP isn't connecting with the middle.

Enough with the personal stories. This isn't even as good as Nixon's "Checkers" speech.

"We have plans to . . ." do what exactly? Zero specifics. No wonder Dems have such an easy time painting GOP as obstructionist.

Best GOP response I ever heard was Gov. Christine Todd Whitman during Clinton administration. This woman is a snooze-fest.

Good Lord, that response was a nothing-burger!  Embarrassing.  Not even a soundbite for a future campaign.  Did GOP pick her because they thought a woman would connect?  This is why national GOP is rudderless.

That's the end of my impressionistic commentary.  Now I shall be more deliberative.  I tried to be as fair as possible in my stream-of-consciousness deconstruction of the speech and its response.  The President does in fact speak well from prepared text - diction, intonation, themes, images are all excellent. My disagreements with the substance of Administration policy - and I have many points of disagreement - are not based on the President's public persona or personal history.  We should remember that modern Presidents excel in part because of their role as public performers.  President Reagan understood this and remained personally popular and effective even after the tax increases of his first term and Iran-Contra in his second.  President Obama exhibits the same qualities.  I admit this even though I would have preferred Mitt Romney on that podium.

NPR's commentators correctly identified the President's goals as modest.  What they missed is linguistic analysis that goes deeper and broader than mention of specific programs.  Geopolitical analysts are trained to deconstruct major policy speeches by heads of state to identify shifts in national priorities and strategy.  The US commitment to Afghanistan and pivot to Asia are obvious.  Both of those themes are clear messages to China that the US will block Chinese encroachment upon its Asian neighbors.  The mention of the pursuit of Al-Qaeda's remnant throughout the world is likely another veiled message to China that the US will maintain a flexible presence in many areas where China seeks influence.  Chanting "Al-Qaeda" is a way to keep the American people motivated and tolerant of foreign interventions.  The discussion of Iran's diplomatic status was a message to Israel that it should take its cues from US leadership and not overreact; this is designed to prevent a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program.

The discussions of domestic priorities were focused on favors to strong constituencies in the President's base.  The health care sector and teachers' unions will continue to benefit from subsidies that insulate their business models from disruption.  This will of course make them even more fragile and prone to disruption, and their long-term collapse will be all the more sudden once disruptive alternatives find viable mass markets.

The official response from the loyal opposition reveals the intellectual bankruptcy of one party in America's two-party political system.  The GOP articulated precisely zero positive policy prescriptions and rendered zero effective criticisms of the President's agenda.  This leaves the President and his party with a relatively free hand for the remainder of 2014, until the Congressional mid-term elections reveal their results.  Speaker Boehner's dislike of the Tea Party caucus is well-known in DC and among national pundits.  The Tea Party represents the inarticulate, disaffected middle of America that is rapidly becoming the GOP's sole remaining constituency outside of the evangelical South.

Neither the President nor the opposition addressed income inequality in detail.  Raising the minimum wage is not a middle class solution and merely strengthens one potential transmission channel for a wage-price spiral in hyperinflation.  Tax reform received a passing mention, with few specifics.  I predict that "income inequality" will be a useful campaign theme in 2014 with no real policy outcomes after the election.

The 2014 State of the Union does not change the basic investment thesis of Alfidi Capital.  The Federal Reserve continues a ZIRP policy and the federal government continues deficit spending.  Those two policies will eventually trigger some combination of a deflationary asset market collapse and a hyperinflationary policy response.  The address is worth noting for the tone it sets and the coded messages it sends to foreign capitals.