My prediction from May that YRCW's stock wouldn't be worth a nickel after its restructuring is proving to be accurate. Today the shares in this soon-to-be-delisted LTL trucker closed at $0.07. A stock under a buck doesn't stay on an exchange for long. Delisting will drop it even further as major institutional holders exit their positions. Big players don't touch penny stocks listed OTC.
The restructuring leaves existing shareholders with almost nothing. Teamsters now own 25% of a failing company. They should take firm delivery of their share certificates so they have enough to use as wallpaper at home in the event of Chapter 7. Day traders and undercapitalized hedge funds now have an extra 300mm shares with which to waste time during market hours.
The Wall Street analysts covering this turkey weren't as accurate as me. Four firms actually upgraded their estimates of this stock in 2008 and 2009 while I've remained consistently bearish. The analyst community's specific estimates of revenue and earnings have been so far off as to be meaningless. The only estimate that matters IMHO is a calculation of intrinsic value at any given time based on a decade of performance. That's why accuracy means far more than precision in estimation; accuracy gets it "about right" while precision runs the risk of getting it "exactly wrong." Human-driven events like market action can never be as precisely measured as engineering concepts.
I had it right all along. Congratulate me any time.
Full disclosure: I never had any position at all in YRCW at any time.
The restructuring leaves existing shareholders with almost nothing. Teamsters now own 25% of a failing company. They should take firm delivery of their share certificates so they have enough to use as wallpaper at home in the event of Chapter 7. Day traders and undercapitalized hedge funds now have an extra 300mm shares with which to waste time during market hours.
The Wall Street analysts covering this turkey weren't as accurate as me. Four firms actually upgraded their estimates of this stock in 2008 and 2009 while I've remained consistently bearish. The analyst community's specific estimates of revenue and earnings have been so far off as to be meaningless. The only estimate that matters IMHO is a calculation of intrinsic value at any given time based on a decade of performance. That's why accuracy means far more than precision in estimation; accuracy gets it "about right" while precision runs the risk of getting it "exactly wrong." Human-driven events like market action can never be as precisely measured as engineering concepts.
I had it right all along. Congratulate me any time.
Full disclosure: I never had any position at all in YRCW at any time.
