Thursday, September 22, 2011

Operation Twist's Perverse Effects Confirmed

We did not need to wait long at all to see the Fed's desired end state become reality.  The stock market sank again today, while bonds rallied.  The crashing stock market makes bonds look desirable.  That will feed the federal government's insatiable desire to spend money it doesn't have and borrow money it can't pay back.  The falling 10-year Treasury rate will prop the housing market for another fake recovery.  Underwater homeowners can pretend they have regained lost home equity for a little while longer.  Those are all part of the Fed's master plan to keep America running on fumes. 

The reset of the American way of life to a much lower level of sustainable prosperity comes in fits but it comes nonetheless.  Stocks one week, perhaps bonds another week, then unfunded entitlement spending another week, until finally consumer spending collapses and pulls down seven decades of post-WWII middle class affluence with it.  The Fed can't keep the mirage up forever.  The age of Levittown was fun while it lasted. 

If it makes my readers feel better, I too am feeling the effects of this bear market.  The value of my GDX and FXI holdings are down with the rest of the equity market.  My reasons for holding them are still valid.  They are both long-term hedges of sorts against the U.S. economy.  China is carrying more internal debt than its foreign accounts surplus would indicate.  Gold's run up won't last forever.  I'm just glad I took time to reduce my holdings of each while they were highly valued.  My cash pile awaits the coming bargains. 

Full disclosure;  Long GDX and FXI with covered calls.