Monday, March 29, 2010

Why Are Most Stock Analysts So Dumb?

I've been asking the question above for most of 2009, and now the MSM is asking the same thing:

Judging from stock prices alone, one would think the economy was poised for a roaring comeback. But the federal government plans to unplug the economic life-support programs that stimulated production, kept interest rates low and placed a thick cushion under the real estate market.

Okay, they're not as explicit as I am, but they are giving a voice to a growing bearish chorus among analysts who had previously heralded the end of the Great Recession.  Some pros (like James Altucher of Formula Capital, whose negative assessment of a college education's value is an opinion I share) are still remarkably bullish.  Let's consider a big piece of contrary evidence.

Consumer spending is clearly not on a sustainable path.  Employment growth has not returned and recent growth in consumer spending is being funded by a massive dip in the savings rate rather than income growth.  Households are not repairing their balance sheets. 

Eventually you'll hear more of this from mainstream commentators.  By then it will be too late to capture whatever gains you've had in this rally.