Friday, March 12, 2010

U.S.A.'s Credit Rating at Risk From Future Foreclosures

We're going to hear more warnings like this from S+P due to Uncle Sam's debt load:

The U.S. dollar is still the most important world currency, Standard & Poor's said on Thursday, but added that rising levels of U.S. debt and dependence on foreigners to finance much of pose risks to the currency's primacy. 

Without a credible plan to rein in fiscal spending, the agency said external creditors could reduce dollar holdings, which could put pressure on the United States' 'AAA' credit rating, which keeps government borrowing costs low.

Why worry?  After all, aren't we Number One?  Well, we're certainly tops in rosy assumptions about home foreclosures:
 
The Federal Housing Administration will need taxpayer money because it failed to properly project how borrowers with FHA-backed loans are affected by job losses and diminished equity in their homes, New York University professor Andrew Caplin told a House panel Thursday.
 
 
Wait a minute, why would the FHA need a bailout?  What do you mean they haven't realistically modeled future loss estimates?  Isn't the housing crisis over?  Nah, of course it's not over, in fact it's probably just getting its second wind:
 
The housing market is facing swelling ranks of homeowners who are seriously delinquent but have yet to lose their homes, and this is threatening a new wave of foreclosures that could hit just as the real estate market has begun to stabilize.
 
The funny part is that on PBS's NewsHour today the anchors were talking up the end of the recession.  Baloney.  No way is this over.