Saturday, December 06, 2008

Getting Ready to Crank Up Fiscal Stimulus

Uncle Sam is getting ready to swipe his ginormous credit card all across this great land of ours:

President-elect Barack Obama promised to make the “single largest new investment,” in America’s roads, require public buildings to be more energy-efficient, and to modernize health care with electronic medical records.
(snip)

In addition to investing in infrastructure, requiring energy standards on public buildings and updating health-care practices, Obama said that he will launch a “sweeping effort to modernize and upgrade school buildings,” and will boost broadband deployment across America.

I'm disappointed that the plan's transportation component addresses motor traffic (roads and bridges) rather than mass transit (bus stations, train tracks, ferry berths). Emphasizing the latter would be the greener solution, but perhaps that's coming later. Perhaps an elevated train trestle can be considered a "bridge" for spending purposes. I'm also worried about the "use it or lose it " provision for state governments. The housing crash has left many communities with unsustainable suburban sprawl. Rebuilding motorways that feed out to vacant subdivisions would be a repeat of Japan's wasteful infrastructure spending! Do you trust your state highway department not to waste money repaving a highway to a ghost town? That's what they'll do if they don't get advice from good urban planners.

Is there an investment play in this spending plan? Can I make money off of this? Let's think about it. All of this federal spending will be a gravy train of income for contractors who can deliver the desired services. Among the top corporate contributors to the victorious 2008 campaign were Microsoft, Google, and IBM. The broadband spending will certainly help their bottom lines, and they would not have contributed if they didn't expect some kind of payback. The pertinent question: Will there be lead contractors to manage each of the programs' components? For example, some big IT firm (IBM?) will have to do systems integration if the proposed networks for broadband and medical records will be built to universal standards. That's where the real money is always made in federal procurement.

If this plan plays out into mass transit or railroad spending, I may have some investing to do.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi does not hold positions in any of the companies mentioned at the time of this posting.