Showing posts with label timber. Show all posts
Showing posts with label timber. Show all posts

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Picking Correct Hard Asset Benchmarks

Hard assets deserve more attention than they get. Commodities, real estate, and perhaps even infrastructure are often lumped together into a very broad asset class. Picking them apart into sensible components requires identifying benchmarks for apples-to-apples comparisons.

Commodities are a very broad subject. Base metals, precious metals, energy sources, foodstuffs, and other materials have radically different uses. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Family is both broad enough and specialized enough to track the sector. The Commodity Research Bureau Indexes represent a less flexible allocation but is nevertheless included in other commercial index products. Picking a broad proxy like the CRB matters for fund managers who run portfolios large enough to include all of the benchmarks components. A fund managing that only hedges with energy futures or metal futures needs more specialized benchmarks tracking just that one thing.

Timberland and farmland are not the same thing in real estate. The end products, final markets, and supply chain inputs (fertilizer, climatology, etc.) are all different. Comparing timber REITs and farmland REITs means using their separate benchmarks. The real estate sector makes it easy. The NCREIF Timberland Index and NCREIF Farmland Index are as different from each other as corn stalks and black walnut trees.

Infrastructure may or may not deserve consideration as a separate asset class. It shares many risk characteristics with equity yet is often funded like a fixed income fund. The problem with benchmarks like the S+P Global Infrastructure Index is their tendency to track actively traded equities that build or maintain infrastructure. It is difficult for infrastructure-related investment products to make pure-play claims if they cannot hold ownership in the infrastructure projects themselves. Muni bond issuance remains the primary funding method for publicly-owned infrastructure. It makes no sense for an investment manager to benchmark a muni bond portfolio against an equity infrastructure index.

Institutional investment managers are often the dumbest people in finance, aside from financial advisers in retail wealth management. They led the charge into alternative assets decades ago with the Swensen Yale model. Some of them probably rode the recent commodities bear market all the way down. Herd mentalities drive smaller endowments and pension funds to mimic the poor portfolio models of the largest universities. Many things can go wrong with an asset allocation leaning heavily on illiquid hard assets. Doing right by any fund's beneficiaries involves picking the correct benchmarks and understanding which hard assets they track.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 08/24/13

Sustaining timber
Manage tree growth and logging
Tall green dividend

Timber REIT Performance and Valuation Comparison

My search for hard asset hedges against hyperinflation continues apace.  I've already checked out self-storage REITs.  Now it's time to check out timber REITs and their related ETFs.  The leading candidates are below.  My sources are the same as before:  Yahoo for P/E and margin, Reuters for EPS and ROE growth.

Rayonier (RYN)
P/E:  18.69
Profit margin:  23.15%
EPS 5yr growth:  8.11%
ROE 5yr growth:  21.01%

Plum Creek Timber (PCL)
P/E:  30.71
Profit margin:  17.77%
EPS 5yr growth:  -4.76%
ROE 5yr growth:  14.74%

Potlatch Corp. (PCH)
P/E:  24.59
Profit margin:  11.83%
EPS 5yr growth:  -11.09%
ROE 5yr growth:  24.49%

Comparing RYN to its two competitors gives me one interesting implication.  The other two have increased their annualized ROE while their EPS have declined.  I don't get that at all.  The inverse of such a relationship  (EPS up, ROE down) holds if a company changes to a more conservative capital structure with less debt.  The long-term debt holdings of those PCL and PCH appear to be constant, so they don't seem to be levering up just to increase ROE.  I wonder whether they've increased their shares outstanding in recent years, as that would account for a larger denominator in the EPS calculation.

A further inspection at the balance sheets of PCL and PCH show increasingly negative retained earnings for several years.  RYN's balance sheet shows retained earnings to be large, positive, and increasing annually.  That result, along with the positive EPS growth for RYN and negative EPS growth for the others, give me enough reason to favor RYN over its two competitors.

Rayonier has a couple of other things going for itself.  Its free cash flow has been positive for three years.  Its long term debt is far above the 2X net income I usually prefer in operating companies, but I'm bending that rule for two reasons.  One, this is a REIT, where high debt is common.  Two, I need a hyperinflation hedge, and hyperinflation reduces debt mountains to molehills.  Oh yeah, one more thing.  Rayonier's P/E ratio is a lot more fairly priced relative to the S&P 500's historic average of 14, so it's somewhat affordable.

Let's find out just how affordable Rayonier should be for me to buy it.  I plugged its dividends into my Alfidi Capital REIT ETF valuation template, using the same assumptions I made for the self-storage REIT.  I get an intrinsic valuation of $17.16/share, so applying a 10% discount means I won't pay a penny more than $15.44/share for RYN.  It hasn't been that cheap since mid-2009 and it currently trades at $56.29.  I'll wait for the market crash first.

I'll also mention timber REIT ETFs, specifically Guggenheim Timber (CUT) and iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD).  My objection to these ETFs is that their holdings are much broader than just timber harvesters.  These ETFs hold operating companies that are in some ways only marginal users of timber products.  Their expense ratios are also extremely high.  That's why I'm ruling them out as candidates for my hard asset strategy.

I've found my pure play timber REIT candidate.  I will wait to buy into Rayonier when the price is right.

Full disclosure:  No position in any of the securities mentioned above at this time.