Showing posts with label debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label debt. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Haiku of Finance for 05/31/23

Markets await the outcome
Everything at risk

Thursday, September 23, 2021

The Haiku of Finance for 09/23/21

Raise it one more time again
The closest delay

Saturday, October 31, 2020

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 01/27/16

It's not enough to have weekly sarcasm. I need to exhibit daily sarcasm. Alfidi Capital must be the unchallenged premium source of financial sarcasm every time the sun rises.

Iran's president says getting filthy rich cures radical nutjobs. He didn't quite say it like that but I like to think that's what he meant in translation. Reuters is too kind to quote heads of state that way. Iran is about to unlock $150B in frozen assets and return to exporting oil as sanctions are lifted. It pays to play nice with one's neighbors. Iran should spend that windfall on something other than harassing student protesters. Meeting the Pope may be the key to convincing Rome's street vendors to import Iranian lavashak (a.k.a. Persian fruit leather, or pressed fruit rolls). I smell a sweet deal.

Credit rating agencies are still messed up. It's about time regulators squeezed these people until they squeal. Selling ratings for MBS and other garbage helped cause the 2008 financial crisis. Dumb money does not perform due diligence even one level deep, let alone for the two or three levels needed to understand securitized products. Continued problems will bring another chance to short every falsely rated financial product in sight.

The corporate debt mountain is ready to topple. Bring on the implosion. Publicly held companies that can't service their debt will get wiped from indexes and bring shorting opportunities to patient investors like me. Defaulted corporate bonds and bankrupt ETF prospectuses will make nice art projects.

I can really get used to a daily sarcasm habit. I will enjoy force-feeding this diet to my regular readers. Eat it, people.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 06/29/15

Wherever there is hope, there is also sarcasm.  A place without hope is the realm of despair, but it can also make room for sarcasm.

Greece walked away from Europe's debt deal.  The Tsipras administration threw down a gauntlet and threw the world's financial markets into turmoil.  Athens has no money, no plan, and no hope.  Many Greeks will have trouble paying everyday bills while their banks are closed for a week, or longer.  The new drachma printing presses may already be plugged in somewhere and ready to run hot.  Once they do, and the new drachma hyperinflates, Greeks will have a hard time paying the electric bill to light the Parthenon at night.

China's stock market is crashing.  The PBOC thinks cutting interest rates will prop up stock prices.  The language they use is even more blatant than what the Federal Reserve says to justify monetary stimulus.  China's hard landing will be even harder than the one due for US markets.  The Chinese stockbrokers who will soon be unemployed can all go live in one of those empty ghost cities springing up outside Beijing.  There's plenty of room.

Puerto Rico cannot pay its debts.  A whole bunch of US investors fell in love with the "triple tax free" narrative when their financial advisers sold them Puerto Rican bonds.  Now they have the pleasure of opening their brokerage statements to see verbiage like "bond in default, payments in arrears" for the foreseeable future.  Way to go, wealth management firms.

All this talk of financial trouble in Greece, China, and Puerto Rico makes me want to hunt for bargains.  Here's a thought.  I'll go to my nearest imported grocery store and load up on discounted pita bread, shrimp dumplings, and plantains.  I even have a name for the meal I could make . . the Black Swan Feast.  Get it?  A bunch of financial black swans are coming home to roost.  It calls for a culinary celebration, because I've been waiting for this opportunity to go short and then buy bargain assets all of my life.

San Francisco still keeps me entertained throughout this financial trouble.  A couple of useful idiots brandished their support for anti-Israel boycotts at the Commonwealth Club tonight.  One of them was a hot babe, and I thought it was a shame to waste such a lame brain on such a gorgeous body.  Give me a hot nerdy babe any day who can think for herself.  I'm certain they inhabit the Commonwealth Club.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Friday, April 03, 2015

The Haiku of Finance for 04/03/15

Record margin debt
Business loans pump enterprise
Pain on reversal

Debt For C+I And Margins Equals Pain In Recessions

Charts and data make investing simple.  I don't mean the point-and-figure kinds of charts that technical analysts take as gospel.  I'm talking about the macroeconomic charts that show how messed up the US economy is going to be in a recession.

The FRED data series BUSLOANS shows the commercial and industrial loans from all commercial banks.  Business loan volume grew steadily up until about 1975, turned up significantly through the 1980s, and then absolutely exploded after 1993.  The prosperity of the Clinton years wasn't just a function of PCs and the Internet making business more productive.  It was also a function of debt-fueled business spending on IT infrastructure, physical plant, and even M+A activity.  Loan volume has almost matched its late 2008 peak.

The raw data from the NYSE is just as stark.  Dig deep for "securities market credit" and note how margin debt has exploded since 2010.  Hedge funds at the big end and retail investors at the small end are leveraging their accounts and trading like mad.  The explosion in C+I debt above is fueling traders' madness.  Corporations use debt for stock buybacks, special dividends, and poorly chosen M+A deals that inflate their enterprise values.  Investors chase these phantom growth drivers at their peril.

The growth in business loans and securities market credit is unsustainable.  Both figures have outstripped GDP growth and population growth at least since the 2008 crisis.  Corporations carrying huge loans and investors carrying huge margins will all feel enormous pain when the market reverses course.  People going nuts about perpetual economic expansions need to get sober.  They definitely need schooling on how excess debt kills the thrill of investing when downturns hit.

Monday, March 02, 2015

The Haiku of Finance for 03/02/15

Taking on more debt
College kids and Greece do it
Both of them are dumb

Student Loans Still Out Of Control In March 2015

Over-indebted American Baby Boomers have raised their Millennial children in their own image.  They have passed on their proclivity for living beyond one's means to a new generation.  Gen-Y continues to take on new debt in the form of unpayable student loans.

The Project on Student Debt noted last November that average college debt for the class of 2013 was two percent higher per graduate than the prior year.  Debt.org notes that total US student debt still tops $1T.  Carrying so much debt would not be so bad in a normal economic expansion.  The problem today is that personal income growth has slowed to a trickle.  Median incomes for most middle class demographics, however you slice them, have not increased since the early 1970s after adjusting for inflation.

Baby Boomers have an average net worth of maybe a buck fifty because hardly any of them saved anything for retirement.  They all counted on Social Security, which is in financial peril according to the Bowles-Simpson commission as long as its recipients aren't means-tested.  Millennials have done their parents' generation one better.  They are going for negative net worth rather than merely going for broke.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Greek Debt Game Theory

Greece's new leaders run a nation whose sovereign debt is about 175% of its GDP.  Most of the Syriza party's cabinet are untested in senior leadership roles.  Entering negotiations with ambit claims is probably beyond their ability.  The European troika should take them at their word when they say that Greece cannot afford to pay its debts in full.  This understanding sketches out the boundaries of a high-stakes Prisoner's Dilemma.  Game theory can help us understand the dilemma's probable outcomes.

The probable end state of most Prisoner's Dilemmas is the defection of the party who first realizes the advantage of abandoning a compromise solution.  The first to defect maximizes their own self-interest.  The classic formulation of this dilemma presumes that the two primary parties do not know each others' intentions.  The European troika and Greece's Syriza know each other's intentions exactly, so an immediate defection from a negotiated solution is not likely.  The problem is that Syriza's absolutist campaign rhetoric leaves little room for a negotiated solution.  Electing amateurs who have never strategized or negotiated beyond a marketing campaign places a crisis-riddled nation at a distinct negotiating disadvantage.

The troika's bankers and economists have obviously considered several scenarios, including a Greek debt default and exit from the euro.  Their negotiating position includes consideration of the cost to Europe of Greece's untenable positions.  Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has until the Feb. 12 EU summit in Brussels to telegraph any softening of his demands for lifting austerity.  He has stated a willingness to "negotiate" but has not budged on his commitment to reinvigorate the Greek welfare state.

Game theory indicates several possible outcomes if we assume the Greek position is fixed.  One set of scenarios should include some form of renewed European generosity that is insufficient to meet Greek demands.  Another should include hard European demands that Greece adhere to its debt covenants if it wants a loan lifeline after Feb. 28.  The least likely scenario is Greek capitulation to any demand, even a temporary one, to secure said lifeline.  A turnabout acceptance of austerity would shatter Syriza's governing coalition and prompt snap elections again.

The likely range of outcomes under game theory is thus some sort of Greek default that prompts the country's withdrawal from the euro.  Europe's leaders have calculated this cost and believe it to be manageable, but they are tempting fate by inviting Greece to negotiate.  The public statements of both EU and Greek leaders indicate that this is the full range of policy outcomes, yet one outcome is also a possibility.  Systemic stability has emerged as an overriding policy consideration on both sides of the Atlantic since the 2008 financial crisis.  Printing euros to maintain a unified eurozone is the most powerful option available to Continental leaders committed to a unified currency.

The negotiations may be mere political theater if the troika is sufficiently confident that ECB monetary stimulus can paper over Greece's problems long enough for a renewed bailout to push the country into growth.  The math gets complicated depending on how enthusiastic economists are for the effects of debt on growth, but the philosophy is not complicated at all.  The ECB quantitative easing timetable can immediately shift to accommodate bond purchases that support further Greek bailouts,  The cost of that option is the decimation of the euro's buying power against the US dollar.  Brussels has yet to indicate whether the cost of the euro's dismemberment or the cost of its devaluation is more tolerable.  Mr. Tsipras' conduct in Brussels will trigger Europe's choice.  Alfidi Capital judges a Grexit to be just as likely as a quantitative easing bailout.

Full disclosure:  Bearish on the euro; long put position against FXE.  

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 12/03/13

Future debt forecast
Cloudy with chance of default
Steer clear of that storm

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

JPMorgan Chase Will Bail Out Your Grandma For Uncle Sam

JPMorgan Chase announced that it will make good on its banking clients' Social Security and other benefit payments in the event Uncle Sam decides to turn deadbeat.  I did a double take when I heard that on NPR this morning, and I read the article to be sure I hadn't misunderstood something.  I can draw one of two implications.  Scenario number one is that JPM is supremely confident that its cash horde will withstand a one-time delay of government payments and it won't get hit with any more SEC fines or forced settlements.  The alternative is that JPM knows something no one else could know about whether it has its own backstop from the US government.

Such an guarantee is very unusual from a SIFI.  Most investors are nonchalant about hedging the possibility of a US default on its shorter termed Treasury obligations.  It sure looks like financial advisors and even portfolio managers haven't explored hedging with hard assets or futures contracts on non-US currencies.  Central banks are making appropriate preparations but the mention of increasing dollar swap lines makes me LOL.  If people panic and sell Treasuries the first thing they'll do is get rid of US dollar proceeds as fast as possible.  Central bank dollar swaps are just as likely to amplify a run on the dollar as mitigate it.

It's too late for your grandma to open a bank account at Chase to seize on this sweet deal.  The next few days will reveal whether one was necessary to bail her out.  

Monday, October 07, 2013

Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 10/07/13

My busy schedule in the real world has put my online lulz on the back burner.  Let's see what the LOLmemes have to say about some recent financial headlines.

The Treasury Secretary is mouthing off about the risk of a debt default.  He's only going through the motions.  Washington drama requires the principal actors to demonstrate sufficient drama so the narrative can distract the folks at home.  The two parties have probably already reached some sort of deal to fund the Affordable Care Act in exchange for unspecified cuts somewhere else, most likely to welfare programs.  The high-profile shuttering of popular national attractions that don't even need operating hours, like some of the war monuments in D.C., is a shameful sideshow.  The federal government is nowhere near a debt default because it has plenty of cash to pay its bondholders.  We are nowhere near dodging a bullet.

The World Bank is reducing its Asia growth forecasts.  They could have read my blog for advance warning that China's growth is fraudulent but no, they just couldn't disrupt the bull case at the height of consensus excitement.  Export-driven economies work great when your trading partners in the US and Europe go into debt to buy your stuff.  The four Asian tigers were the talk of the 1980s and '90s.  Now they're turning into big pussycats.

Japan is making progress towards its stated inflation target of two percent in two years.  They could easily overshoot and hit 20% in two months but no one seems to care.  The average German or Austrian had no love lost for the Weimar Republic once its hyperinflationary policies destroyed their savings.  Abenomics will travel a similar path in Japan and the average saver won't notice until their savings are counted in millionths of a yen.

I hope you all enjoyed reading my sarcasm as much as I did making it.  Nah, just kidding.  I don't care what you idiots think.  If lulz gets you excited about reading my stuff then have at it.  

Monday, August 26, 2013

Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 08/26/13

A rare week with no conferences or business meetings to attend leaves lots of white space on my calendar.  I am bereft of live events but news items still feed my sarcasm.

Another meaningless debt limit will come and go in October with absolutely no effect on federal spending decisions.  Anyone who thought the national debt stopped growing took their eyes off the ball.  The drama next month will allow the Republican-controlled House to posture against Obamacare while doing absolutely nothing about it.  The ceiling will rise and deficit spending will continue.  Only forced selling of Treasuries by central banks is going to stop this circus.

Durable goods orders are in a surprise freefall.  The only people truly surprised were those who thought QE could conjure real prosperity out of thin air.  The weak yen and euro make exports from those areas temporarily more competitive.  Expect more competitive devaluation here to make US exports look better.

JPMorgan Chase messed over the wrong Russian-American billionaire.  I had previously thought that wealth managers only sought to stick it to their low-rung clients just to extract as much revenue as they could before those accounts departed to a discount broker.  Now I see that even premium wealth managers will allow billionaires' portfolios to slide out of specified tolerances if it gets them more revenue.  I still think JPM has nothing to worry about from other court cases.  It's a SIFI and those other litigants are small fries with no high-powered connections.

Facebook's valuation continues its march into insanity.  I have to LOL at the 180 P/E.  Here's the simple math.  Net income would have to be 9x larger for FB to have a P/E comparable to other tech companies.  The market is pricing in a ramp-up in earnings that even Amazon hasn't produced after a decade.  I'm still pricing in the inability of Facebook to make it happen in mobile, which implies a P/E collapse to about 20.  That further implies a true valuation of $4.59/share, or just about the five bucks I've always pegged for an FB share.  I'll believe Facebook has conquered mobile when its percentage of revenue from mobile ads equals the worldwide percentage of Web users who predominantly use mobile for Web access.

Nothing in the news today made me angry enough to use profanity in my home office.  That's just as rare as having no business events on my calendar.

Full disclosure:  No positions in any companies mentioned at this time.