Stocks, bonds, and real estate remain severely overvalued worldwide. No one has to take my word for it. Anyone with a junior high school reading level can review reports from the Bank of International Settlements on how public market valuations have come uncoupled from macroeconomic reality. Hardly any professional portfolio managers will take those high-level warnings seriously.
Consider this the year-in-review from Alfidi Capital. There isn't much I can say here that I haven't been saying for the past several years. Mean reversions across multiple asset classes and geographies are long overdue. Predicting the timing is a waste of effort. Knowing the likely scale and consequences of the correction is more productive. Contrarians made fortunes in the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis by preparing in advance and staying away from inflated risks. I am ready to watch Wall Street learn its hard lessons in 2016.