Wall Street closed out another year with nonsense galore. The DJIA went nowhere for 2015 and even closed down today. You can be sure that some salesperson somewhere will pitch this as a buying opportunity in 2016. I won't pitch anything at all. Reviewing the year's action doesn't uncover much that anyone could sensibly pitch.
Stocks, bonds, and real estate remain severely overvalued worldwide. No one has to take my word for it. Anyone with a junior high school reading level can review reports from the Bank of International Settlements on how public market valuations have come uncoupled from macroeconomic reality. Hardly any professional portfolio managers will take those high-level warnings seriously.
Consider this the year-in-review from Alfidi Capital. There isn't much I can say here that I haven't been saying for the past several years. Mean reversions across multiple asset classes and geographies are long overdue. Predicting the timing is a waste of effort. Knowing the likely scale and consequences of the correction is more productive. Contrarians made fortunes in the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis by preparing in advance and staying away from inflated risks. I am ready to watch Wall Street learn its hard lessons in 2016.
Stocks, bonds, and real estate remain severely overvalued worldwide. No one has to take my word for it. Anyone with a junior high school reading level can review reports from the Bank of International Settlements on how public market valuations have come uncoupled from macroeconomic reality. Hardly any professional portfolio managers will take those high-level warnings seriously.
Consider this the year-in-review from Alfidi Capital. There isn't much I can say here that I haven't been saying for the past several years. Mean reversions across multiple asset classes and geographies are long overdue. Predicting the timing is a waste of effort. Knowing the likely scale and consequences of the correction is more productive. Contrarians made fortunes in the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis by preparing in advance and staying away from inflated risks. I am ready to watch Wall Street learn its hard lessons in 2016.
