Wow, there's plenty of deal action to blog about today.
Wal-Mart wants to buy Massmart for $4.25B. Let's run some basic numbers on Massmart (MMRTY.PK). ROE is a whopping 36%, holy canole, and quarterly growth is an eye-popping 27%. Unfortunately the P/E is 28, astronomical for a retailer. Wal-Mart (WMT) is looking to shove their global supply chain into African wallets.
Unilever wants to buy Alberto Culver for $3.7B. Funny, I've never heard of Alberto Culver (ACV). Let's see what they're all about. Their P/E of 25 is almost at Massmart's nosebleed altitude. Are they worth such a premium? Their ROE of around 12% is less than the 15% I'd prefer. At least their net income is steady and healthy, and big kudos to them for whittling their long-term debt down to under half a million dollars. That's unheard of for a company with a market cap in the billions. Unilever (UL) likes what it sees, so this may be a halfway decent deal if they can get that ROE up after some serious cost-cutting.
Southwest wants to buy AirTran for $1.4B in cash and stock. Well, what's so desirable about AirTran (AAI) all of a sudden? Their ROE is a paltry 6.26%, which must look good to Southwest (LUV) whose own ROE is an even more lousy 4.15%. Southwest is assuming AirTran's debt, which could jeopardize its long run of profitability if a renewed recession hurts air travel. Finally, AirTran's P/E has climbed into thin air at almost 44. I wouldn't pay $44 for dollar's worth of earnings anywhere, certainly not up in the wild blue yonder.
All of these deals have something in common. The acquirers seem to be paying a premium for market share in mature industries driven by consumer spending. That is not at all a smart move if the world economy is headed for zero growth or a double-dip.
Full disclosure: No positions in any company mentioned at the time this post was published.
