Monday, June 07, 2010

Airlines: The Unreliable Investment

I like the transportation sector, but I don't think I could ever buy stock in an airline.  Their earnings are just too unpredictable:

The world’s airlines will book net profits of $2.5 billion in 2010, the International Air Transportation Association said, just three months after it forecast a $2.8 billion loss. 

The $5.3 billion turn round since the group’s March forecast is driven by a faster-than-expected recovery in the global economy, IATA said in its latest market forecast today, June 7.
 

The recent drop in fuel costs is probably another factor in this turnaround.  Still, I would never commit my own money to an industry with such wild swings in fortune.  Note that European airlines are still having trouble even after the skies have cleared of volcanic ash.  That second leg down in the Sovereignty Crunch will send more airlines into a tailspin.  I like that metaphor.  Hey, I like all of my metaphors.