Intermodal Drop Heralds Slowdown In Phantom "Recovery," But Knight Prepares To Buy Something

Folks, I've been skeptical about this so-called "recovery" given the continued weakness in employment data.  Increased railcar loadings and rising ocean-going shipping rates have signaled that more goods are moving, but the consumer spending driving those orders comes from decreased savings and money diverted from mortgage payments.  That's not healthy, people!  Now here's a sign that freight orders are dropping off:

Intermodal loadings by the major North American railroads slowed last week to the weakest levels since snowstorms rocked the freight system in early to mid-February.
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Rail freight traffic has maintained most of its recent strength, especially in carloads of bulk materials and equipment. Yet carloadings also slowed some for the North American majors, to 372,270 units in the April 3 week from 383,109 in the week ending March 27. The latest carloads are the lowest since Feb. 20.

Best case:  This is bottom-bouncing.  Worst case:  Traffic is peaking.  I consider logistics data to be forward-looking, because purchasing managers estimate future demand before they order goods to replenish inventories.  This implies the retail picture two to three months from now will look poorer.  That's why I can't believe in any recovery.  Proceed at your own risk. 

Speaking of logistics, I'm intrigued by the possibility that Knight Transportation (KNX) is considering an acquisition.  The target is hard to discern, but the clues are tantalizing:  a truckload carrier, 2009 revenue $450mm, negative net income, 2500-3000 trucks, dry vans and flatbeds, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest.  My internet searches have turned up nothing solid so far.