Don't go around talking about an economic turnaround in the second half of 2009 until you consider the effect of consumers' wallets staying shut:
Citing a change in some states' tax holiday periods this year is IMHO a negligible explanation for the weak sales. If that 0.5% tax factor were added back in the decline would still be in line with the average decline this year of 4.5%. Things are not improving at all.
That's why I'm staying short SPY and IWM calls.
Shoppers, worried about job security and finding fewer options among the sales bins, remained tight-fisted in July, resulting in sluggish sales for many merchants and raising concern about the back-to-school shopping season's health.
(snip)
The International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs tally fell 5.0 percent in July compared with the year-ago period. July's pace was in line with the 5.1 percent drop in June and worse than the 4.5 percent decline averaged since February, the beginning of retailers' fiscal calendar. Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist, estimates that the tax holiday factor depressed July's results by 0.5 percentage points and will boost August's sales figures by the same amount.
Citing a change in some states' tax holiday periods this year is IMHO a negligible explanation for the weak sales. If that 0.5% tax factor were added back in the decline would still be in line with the average decline this year of 4.5%. Things are not improving at all.
That's why I'm staying short SPY and IWM calls.
