As I wrote almost a year ago, Warren Buffett is justifiably revered by investors around the world, and I consider myself one of those who have worshiped at his investing altar over the past three decades. Nevertheless, from my perch, Buffett's salad days seem to be over; the only question that remains is the timing and to what degree investors will abandon the Oracle of Omaha.
In defense of Uncle Warren, his entire investing lifetime has taken place in an era of rising corporate and government debt when Keynesian thought dominated economics in the OECD nations. Even with his aversion to buying debt-laden companies, he could not have expected the secondary effects on his portfolio of the implosion of a debt-laden economy.
Addressing an individual's investing lifespan is a useful heuristic. People in the modern era really only have about four decades to build wealth, starting in their early twenties when they enter the adult workforce and ending with their retirement in their sixties. Those four decades provide limited opportunities for learning when macroeconomic interventions try to smooth out troughs. Perhaps a few more sharp recessions in the port-WWII era would have done us all some good by discouraging recklessness.
I'm 35 years old. Uncle Warren started to make a name for himself as an analyst and portfolio manager at about the same age. He had access to great minds like his father and Benjamin Graham from a very early age. I have access to the wisdom he has offered since then, building upon what he learned from his masters. If I remain healthy and avoid traffic accidents I should have more than four decades remaining to accumulate wealth and apply whatever wisdom I possess.
School is in session, and I'm taking notes. They're on this blog in case you want to read them.
