Saturday, January 31, 2009

More Bad Figures, and They're Not Even Revised Yet

I don't need any more confirmation of bad economic conditions, but some Wall Street permabulls certainly do. Read the numbers and weep:

The 3.8 percent annual pace of contraction in the fourth quarter was less than forecast, with a buildup of unsold goods cushioning the blow. Excluding inventories, the decline was 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.

Enough has been said in the blogosphere about how the inventory buildup made the GDP decline seem less precipitous than expected. Most of the Street's traders only see the headline number anyway before they execute. Wait until the Commerce Dept. revises these numbers down in the months ahead. The markets will finally get the message by Q209.

The economy isn't just going down the tubes. It's in the sewer and headed straight for the ocean.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is short calls on SPY and IWM.