Sunday, September 22, 2013

The Limerick of Finance for 09/22/13

Korea tech startups are hot
Word of mouth is how they hit the spot
Get cash from Samsung
Make it past the first rung
Incubators can give them a shot

Alfidi Capital at Korea's beGLOBAL 2013 Conference in Silicon Valley

I haven't been to South Korea since early 2000 but recently South Korea came to my neighborhood.  This month's beGLOBAL 2013 conference brought Korean hi-tech startups to meet Silicon Valley's leading lights in new venture investment.  I attended because I wanted to get a flavor for the innovations that beSUCCESS and several Korean government agencies are supporting in Korea.  Anyone who wants to go all the way to Korea should attend their beLAUNCH event.  Check out my summary paraphrasing of the key participants' public comments below; as always, my own original observations are in italics.

I got to mingle beforehand with some of the entrepreneurs who would pitch their startups later that day.  They were all social media and e-commerce applications.  Those don't fit my portfolio but I was impressed that their technologies were mature enough for deployment.

The first panel made history with three generations of VCs in the Draper family - Bill, Tim, and Adam - on stage together for the first time ever.  I got to shake Tim's hand while he worked the crowd and we chatted briefly on Korean geopolitics.  The Draper family is quite media-savvy.  I'd sure like to appear on Jesse Draper's Valley Girl Show about Silicon Valley.  I'm sure my wit and charm would just bowl her over.  I was disappointed that actress Polly Draper wasn't on hand.  I fondly recall seeing her bare derriere in a racy swimming pool scene on thritysomething way back in my teenage years and I'll bet her caboose still looks nice.  Anyway, my photo below shows the VC Drapers on stage together just after their panel concluded.  I respect these folks way too much to ruin the shot with a LOLcat-type caption.



John Nahm from Strong Ventures moderated the Draper panel.  John thanked Bill for his service in the Korean War, and Bill remarked that it was normal back then for young Americans in the Greatest Generation to expect a call to service that would interrupt their lives.  I wish I could say the same thing today.  My own calls to US military service have severely degraded my civilian career.  Private sector employers viewed my background with disdain until I started Alfidi Capital.  I should have told prospective employers that military veterans William H. Draper and Georges Doriot pretty much invented venture capital based on their wartime experiences in developing technology.  Bill recalled his friendship with another Army lieutenant who was KIA during combat in Korea and said that his death was worthwhile now that South Korea is prosperous and free.  He cited the book Nothing to Envy on the deplorable living conditions inside North Korea.  I fully endorse Bill's assessment.  I received nothing but thanks during my two active-duty tours in South Korea from Koreans who were old enough to remember the war.  My only glimpse of North Korea was a visit to the UN Joint Security Area (JSA) at Panmunjom in December 1995.  South Korea in the 1990s was one of the world's leading makers of automobiles, computer chips, and ocean cargo ships.  Former President Kim Young-Sam's "segyehwa" policies saw South Korea embrace global culture and trade.  Seoul's urban sprawl reminded me of Los Angeles and Pusan's hills reminded me of San Francisco.  Only after moving to San Francisco did I realize that Seoul is its official sister city.

Tim Draper remarked that he had invested in a Korean venture fund that returned 1x in spite of the dot-com crash.  He credits the exposure of virtual goods' value in a Korean video game as the factor that opened his mind to Zynga.  Adam Draper said that Bitcoin is the closest thing now to a global currency, and his involvement in several Bitcoin startups made him proud to be the first Draper to receive a subpoena.  His grandfather Bill then joked that he'd be the first Draper to go to jail.  The Drapers concluded by saying that crowdfunding will change the LP/GP relationship in VC and that it allows entrepreneurs to accelerate their ventures.  Hardware is now a hot idea again with VCs because crowdfunding makes it cheaper than ever to raise capital.

The Drapers judged the first round of startup pitches.  Their comments were terrific fire-hose introductions to VC thinking.  They wanted to see user traction, size of market, path to monetization, and differentiation from competitors.  Tim Draper is skeptical of serial entrepreneurs because he thinks they tend to jump to competitors rather than stick with a funded startup.  It's rare for me to hear such skepticism.  I had previously thought that serial entrepreneurs were a success factor because they knew how to get to an exit event.  Some VCs also dislike paying for the key-person insurance policies for serial entrepreneurs.  One of the funniest moments was when Bill Draper asked one entrepreneur, "So we've heard about the company . . . who are you?"  The pitch-person didn't tell the panel what their role was with the startup.  I thought it was cute that one of the female Korean entrepreneurs demurely covered her mouth while giggling; that's a Korean cultural habit that still hasn't disappeared.

The next panel was Samsung's fireside chat about open innovation.  Samsung invests in seed-stage ventures and uses its Open Innovation Center (OIC) as an accelerator.  The Samsung rep thinks its accelerator gives startups access to Samsung's huge platform as a distribution channel.  The OIC removes the administrative overhead burden so startups can focus on product development.  Individual entrepreneurs can enter the OIC with employment agreements.  Samsung Ventures invests larger amounts in Series B and later startups, while the OIC invests in seed to Series A and considers M&A to be an critical part of its business process.  Samsung owns the startups they bring into their accelerator and pays entrepreneurs a full salary.  If a mature product doesn't fit Samsung's ultimate strategy, they consider spinouts.  Samsung sounds like an extremely generous benefactor.  Selling out to a big global company provides entrepreneurs with a clear choice.  They can sell out early and become wholly-owned employees or take their chances with later stage investors if they stay independent.

Other local VCs addressed the ROI of investing in Korea and Asia in the next panel.  VCs think Korean entrepreneurs are passionate and driven.  Korea has great Internet infrastructure, it serves as a gateway to other Asian markets, and the country's top education system generates talent.  There also a few things VCs don't like about Korea.  The notion of entrepreneurship is still alien to most Koreans; I believe it's because Asians generally fear that failure results in a loss of face.  Exit events in Korea often have lower multiples than in the US mostly due to the smaller size of the Korean market for many products.  US VCs still need to be convinced to invest in Korea; it's not always a given.  Koreans also think the founder embodies the entire startup and that her/his departure ends the company.  Contrast this with the US view that a startup CEO is a manager whom the VCs can replace.

The ROI panel thought many Korean executives lack marketing skills.  Korean demographics are not diverse and are very concentrated.  That's why word-of-mouth marketing is easier.  The downside to this strength is that Koreans don't get to develop other marketing methods.  US VC liquidation preferences are usually 1x for Korean investments.  Some liquidation preferences may run afoul of Korean trade restrictions, and Koreans are unfamiliar with US liquidation preferences.  The Korean government can make entrepreneurship socially acceptable and not just by providing funding.  Korean-Americans have an untapped opportunity to find investments in sectors where both the US and Korea are strong.  Customer acquisition cost is very low in Korea and that's why it's a great platform for early growth.  This leads me to believe that future beGLOBAL events should focus on Los Angeles, home to one of the largest concentration of ethnic Koreans outside of Korea.

Dr. Jeanie Han presented her experience with the LINE mobile app as a case study of a successful Asian startup.  I've never heard of LINE before because I don't do much mobile messaging and I don't have a smartphone.  I think the originality of this app is its ability to brand individual text messages with known icons.  Postmodern communication is now post-literate.  These icons are all purely emotional, devoid of any intellectual content.  I might use an IM app if the only character icon is a raised middle finger.  Their success in Europe laid to rest internal concerns that their style was too Asian.  Cute character stickers are a universal language with crossover appeal.  Their avatar rooms are gateways to e-commerce with a focus on celebrity-endorsed virtual rooms.  I avoid social media investments because they all share the same vulnerabilities.  They have no barriers to entry from capital costs or switching costs, and thus they have no defensible economic advantage.

More angels and VCs ran the after-lunch panel on seed funds going global.  BTW, the Four Seasons Silicon Valley provided an excellent lunch.  There's no one-size-fits-all approach to seed funding.  Investing styles must match an investor's strengths.  Bingo!  That's why crowdfunding platforms are so diverse.  Many early-stage venture funds don't invest outside the US because they aren't sure how to add value.  Speaking the local language and knowing the culture are the barriers IMHO.  That's how you avoid getting ripped off.  Successful startups need seed-stage mentoring to meet the gateways that will get them to Series A.  That's the disadvantage of crowdfunding.  Joe Six Pack may not have the high-quality operational knowledge to add value with his $500 investment.  Working with great startups regardless of geography enables investors to share the best lessons with other startups closer to home. Investors sometimes overrate the quality of the advantage they think they can provide to a startup in another country.  That's a long way to go for a learning experience.  It's why venture investing works best when it's close to home.  I learned right here in the SF Bay Area that no one wants to take a risk with me because of my military background.  I didn't have to fly off anywhere else to learn that I "failed fast" by trying to convince people my military experience mattered.  

The next fireside chat was about global entrepreneurship and paying it forward.  The Meltwater Group creates a startup in a new national market it wants to enter.  Check out their MEST project for training African software entrepreneurs.  Pragmatic value propositions sell in the US for better/faster/cheaper products.  Other countries have non-rational cultural barriers to overcome, where trust matters.  Meltwater runs potential hires through workshops and exercises to assess their entrepreneurial attitude.  The Meltwater guy talks about empowering African entrepreneurs because the region is growing, but IMHO he ignores the governance ecosystem and rule of law that make entrepreneurship viable in the US.  Africa is growing because of Chinese investment in large infrastructure projects and the West's interest in natural resources.  Those have little to do with our understanding of hi-tech entrepreneurship.  Meltwater recommends bootstrapping your startup as long as possible to strengthen its DNA (culture, resilience, etc.) before going to VCs.  Good hiring is crucial initially to get the right people in a startup.  They will be senior execs when the company is much larger years later.  Seeing the world through a positive mindset determines one's entire life trajectory and is crucial to a startup's success.

The Korean VC funds on the next panel discussed how they invest in Silicon Valley.  Big Korean firms invest in Silicon Valley VC funds mainly to make money.  Finding VC firms they like means they can find local partners.  Investing in US VCs allows Korean firms to learn the US market.  That's a lot more expensive than talking to local chambers of commerce or the South Korean embassy and consulates in the US.

Ben Huh and Emily Huh of the Cheezburger Network had an awesome title for their panel:  "Entrepreneurial LOL, Fail, and Meme."  Ben bought the "cheezburger" site at the beginning of the Web meme phenomenon.  They had no grand plan but wanted to experiment with different ideas.  They were willing to fail; they quickly learned from mistakes and moved on.  Ben's most awesome quote went something like this:  "Entrepreneurship is the difference between opportunity and the cost of risk."  That belongs in every MBA course syllabus that discusses strategy and the cost of capital.  Ben advised us to survive to fight another day by mastering one market first.  Learn your lessons there, then apply them in a new market.  Proving you can accomplish something attracts investor capital.  LOL memes are popular in English-speaking countries but not in Asia.  Humor is cultural.  Use data analytics to motivate your people.  It's very difficult for people to argue with metrics.  Start every meeting with KPIs.  That drives the point that everyone is in it together to drive progress in those metrics.  Ben's observations were awesome.  I'd work for this guy if I weren't so averse to working for human beings.

More "entrepreneurs from the east (coast)" populated the next panel, specifically Koreans who had launched successful startups.  I haven't heard this many insights into Korean mindsets since I left that country years ago.  Here they come for your benefit.  Korean culture has a strong aversion to failure.  Korean entrepreneurs who have experienced failure manage to overcome that aversion.  Founders must get rid of that fear.  Stop worrying about how you look in others' eyes.  The US's strong bankruptcy protection laws enable recovery from failure.  Koreans like to drink!  "Liver equity" instead of sweat equity goes into deals because there's always a green bottle of soju handy.  That's one Korean cultural trait that really helps.  I remember back in 1999 when I was making the rounds of the GI bars in Songtan outside Osan Air Base.  The Korean bar girls would charge different prices for the services they offered, and this one gal would . . . oh, well, you get the idea.  The rest of my Korea drinking stories are reserved for an in-person audience that pays for my drinks.  The panel closed with the admonishment to learn how other cultures use tech, and not to give up.

The final panel featured accelerators with "global" in mind.  The panel said cross-border M&A is widely accepted and that smart, creative people are better off launching startups than doing internships.  Startups join accelerators because they want access to networks.  "Tech tourism" happens when founders and executives visit regions like Silicon Valley to learn local entrepreneurial culture.  Korean startups venturing into Silicon Valley will be hard-pressed to keep some engineering capability in Korea, but they should do so if they're serious about building a global corporate culture that retains local market knowledge.  An accelerator's key success metrics must include how much capital its mature startups can raise after graduating.  Good mentors keep startups focused on their core functions:  gaining traction, building products, getting sales.  I must say that the best panelist by far was Jonathan Nelson of the Hackers / Founders Meetup group.  Check out the official H/F site.  His comments and Ben Huh's observations made this entire conference worthwhile for me.  Jonathan said accelerator platforms will increasingly separate their advice function from their funding platforms.  He believes that entrepreneurship is a craft we can learn from doing projects.  Accelerator volunteers excel by referring participants to experts.  His own goal is to move GDP.  Jonathan thinks entrepreneurship is an illness and addiction.  YES!!  I totally agree.  Founders just think differently from normal wage-earners IMHO because their brains are wired to process signals in a unique way.

This beGLOBAL conference rocked and so did the afterparty.  I got to mingle with some folks who run professional mixers and roundtable groups for the Silicon Valley area.  I can hardly believe my good fortune to be accepted as a peer among this crowd.  It's more of a welcome than I got from most people in San Francisco. The Silicon Valley mentality is all about Horatio Alger self-made types bootstrapping themselves from rags to riches.  The San Francisco mindset is about keeping the riff-raff like me out of the private clubhouse.  I don't want to leave San Francisco because my resentment for small-minded preppies is a big part of my motivation.  I'm spending a lot more time in the Valley these days because people there are still willing to stand behind a brand new thing from out of the blue, regardless of pedigree.  That helps me stay positive whenever The City tries to turn me negative.  Thanks, beGLOBAL.  

Saturday, September 21, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/21/13

Intern at big bank
Learn how to lie like the best
Rich dad pulled a string

Financial Sarcasm Roundup for 09/21/13

Here comes a late Saturday night sarcastic blast.  I saw some fun headlines that I just can't ignore.

BlackBerry's new phone is a sales dud and the company's overall numbers are horrible.  Last decade's must-have device at places like my previous employers is now unwanted.  Forget the "Market Ticker" rave reviews of the Z10.  Most smartphone users aren't hard core tech heads.  They don't need an engineer's dream product because they really only care about texting LOLcat pics to friends.

Harvard plans to raise a record amount for its endowment.  These things are planned years in advance but I can't help wonder about ulterior financial motives.  The student loan bubble is bound to burst and upper-income parents will eventually tire of paying full tuition so low-income students can receive merit-based subsidies.  Yes, folks, snobbery really does rule at these types of schools.  The Ivys and other elite schools need to move fast to digitize their best courses and brand them for online distribution because the MOOC revolution is going to destroy most colleges' business models.  The top-rung schools can survive if they focus on STEM laboratory work that can't be executed online.

The local tech community lends a hand to civic life through the San Francisco Citizens Initiative for Technology and Innovation.  It's cool that techies want to reinvigorate education but redesigning K-12 curriculum needs to accommodate the MOOC revolution.  See my rant about Harvard just above.  Otherwise, we'll end up with a bunch of unionized teachers sitting around on their larded posteriors while their motivated students zip ahead through self-paced online courseware.  Students can learn most of what they need online at home and commute to a magnet school once or twice a week to do STEM lab work.  

Friday, September 20, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/20/13

Drink with media
Find hot female reporter
Key to good PR

Learning PR at the Impact Hub San Francisco

I got to attend a free public relations workshop last week at the Impact Hub San Francisco.  The space is unique among incubators because it supports non-profit startups and B-corporations.  It's the latest manifestation of the social capital phenomenon.  I'm all about free info and free support so I had to check this out.  I must have looked out of place as the only dude there in a suit and tie but I had just come from a more formal engagement, so that's my story.

The speakers were all PR practitioners and journalists.  The single most important thing I learned in the PR workshop was the importance of building relationships with journalists.  They repeated that lesson over and over again; repetition drives a point home like nothing else.  The social media space is pretty small but it can launch stories into the mainstream media.  They key is to cultivate a targeted list of journalists covering your sector who can give a social media story traction if they trust you as a source.  The story, of course, is your press release that touts something your business is doing.

The ever-awesome Hermione Way was the final speaker.  She is even hotter in person than she looks in photos.  Her "inside baseball" tips on media relationships were invaluable and I'll repeat a few right here.  Never assume anything is off the record.  Don't launch your PR at bad times (like when a big competitor has a major launch) or misunderstand a reporter's lead time for publishing.  Retweeting journalists' articles gets their attention and sometimes high-powered people tweet back.  One TV appearance is worth millions in ad spend.  Drink booze with the press, because that's how journalists relieve stress.  Got it, Hermione (BTW, it's pronounced "her-MY-nee").  Thanks for the tips and for being so incredibly hot.  Now I just need to figure out where the financial press in the San Francisco area goes for drinks after hours so I can ply them with my awesomeness.  I look forward to drinking with hot female media personalities like Hermione Way so they can marvel at my extreme genius while they push out my business PR.

Here come the hot media sites the experts mentioned.  Help A Reporter Out (HARO) enables anyone with authority on some subject to get the attention of reporters.  Muckrack aggregates the daily tweets of topics journalists discuss.  TechCrunch likes entertaining stories.

Hey folks, I don't publish this stuff just for my health.  I'm always looking for the hot angles that will give my business the edge.  You betcha I'm using these strategies myself.  Sharing a few tips with my audience makes me the go-to guy for business insights.  Don't believe me?  Just ask me.  

Thursday, September 19, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/19/13

Extreme invention
Make gadgets with funny twist
Laugh on way to bank

Outlandish Innovations We All Need Now

I've spent more time down in Silicon Valley in the past few months than in the first 40 years of my life.  That place is full of bona fide geniuses churning out untold wonders of technology.  I'd like to throw out some sample high-tech ideas that I've been spinning around my noggin' just to see what sticks to the wall.

Solar-powered pants.  I watched one guy charge up his smartphone by plugging into an outlet on a Muni train.  If he had worn solar-powered pants he could have just plugged it into his . . . well, you get the picture.  The size of this market is huge.  Dude, everybody wears pants.

Baloney detector.  I could have used this one while I was involved with military veterans' groups for a couple of years.  It would have to look and work like a Star Trek tricorder so I could detect a range of scams, schemes, lies, and half-truths.  It would also need modulation to differentiate between mild shades of embellishment and flat-out fabrications.

X-ray glasses.  I'm not talking about the gag version of X-Ray Specs you can buy on eBay for a nickel.  I'm talking about the real thing that will allow me to see into women's locker rooms and through the attire of the hot chicks I meet at business conferences.  The ideal configuration would be an app that enables Google Glass to assess my momentary dream gal's measurements.  Plug this thing into solar-powered pants and I'd be "energized" in more ways than one, if you know what I mean (and I think you do).

Pocket Death Star.  The Death Star is a mighty battle station but it would be extremely costly to construct to scale in reality.  The "pocket battleship" once carried heavy armament while adhering to lighter displacement.  I would like to create a pocket-sized Death Star about the size of a tennis ball that I can use to painfully zap people I don't like in my vicinity.  This low-powered, fun-size version of the Imperial battle station would fly out of my jacket pocket and use its non-lethal superlaser to scare the bejeezus out of anyone who triggers an alert on my baloney detector.  Solar-powered pants would provide the energy source to make it go.  It would also impress chicks that I'm checking out with my X-ray glasses.

I'd be willing to fund any and all of these inventions if a startup will grant me 100% equity and pay me all of the licensing income in perpetuity.  I want someone else to do all of the work so I can take all of the reward.  That's the American way and I'm all about pursuing my American dream.  My technological mastery will make me overlord of all the induhviduals who stand in my way.  

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/18/13

Optimizing search
Content outperforms linking
Build quality first

Alfidi Capital at SES San Francisco 2013

I attended SES San Francisco 2013 last week; the organizers archived the conference program for those of you who didn't attend.  I couldn't resist this show because I need to discover the latest social media strategies that will bring Alfidi Capital to millions of investors starving for my incredible insights.  My usual convention for discussing conferences still holds.  I paraphrase speakers' content in regular text and add my own observations of their subject matter in italics.

The show started with SES's founder recommending Vivastream (an app for event networking), ClickZ (a social marketing knowledge base), and Search Engine Watch (monitors best practices for optimizing search engine appearance) for a social media marketer's toolbox.  He admitted that quantifying social ROI is difficult.  I think he just gave me a good blog topic, because creating innovative concepts and metrics is my natural talent.

The first day's keynoter was Jeffrey Hayzlett.  He sounded mostly like a motivational speaker, but he did leverage his experience at Kodak into some action points.  Jeffrey wants marketing leaders to drive change by being "clock changers" because C-suites like self-starters who take initiative to solve problems.  He described five main mistakes in failing to drive change.  Here they come.

1.  Fear.  Survival instincts inhibit change.
2.  Tension.  Healthy debate is good.  Search for things that create cognitive dissonance.
3.  Radical transparency.  Own up to your shortcoming and ask your team for help.
4.  Take risk.  Push the envelope.  Try multiple themes and methods.  Radical transparency mitigates risk if your entire team is providing feedback.
5.  Promises.  Customers and providers are linked in an action cycle where satisfaction comes from promise fulfillment.

Jeffrey demanded we ask ourselves to find our "118," the equivalent of a 118-second elevator pitch.  I don't know how many floors an elevator can traverse in 118 seconds.  Most of the elevator pitches I've heard are confined to 30 seconds.  He also wants us to find our passion and stand for something.  I've heard this kind of talk from high school guidance counselors and Boy Scout troop leaders.  I guess some people need to hear it from marketing motivational gurus.  The professional speaking circuit must be quite lucrative if it pays keynoters for such penetrating (yawn) insights.  

I spent almost the entire first day of the SES show in the Google seminars.  They were mostly focused on getting people to use Google's products but I got a few hints on how that will drive my social media action to new levels of bonanza.  Google also provided free snacks and soda.  That must be one cool place to work.  I've never sent them my resume because I'm certain I'm too old to fit in.  I prefer that they come to me at these conferences.

Google's AdWords guru said that an advertiser's AdWords budget should be dynamic.  Part of the reason is that search impressions vary by device, time of day, and geography.  Bids rather than budget should drive the ad spend.  This  strongly implies that advertisers must flex their ad budget to target their product and brand key demographics by some constantly changing mix of device, time, and geography.  There will never be a static optimal mix.  Google's conversion tracker reveals click responses to ad buys, so assign a value to conversions from each device type.  CPA changes may lead to dramatic step-ups in profitability.  It's not just some trick to get Google's clients to spend more on AdWords.  Google will publish this as a white paper in a few weeks or months.  Google has tons of research papers available.  

The next Googler talked about success in mobile apps.  Here comes my stream-of consciousness narrative.  Mobile barriers to conversions (i.e., ad impressions that lead to sales) are gone because mobile purchases are now accepted behavior.  Sales success comes from ease of use, like one-click purchases.  Engagement is more important than acquisition.  Development teams can add Google Analytics' SDK to their apps.  Power management is a concern for developers.  Simplicity in apps is better than complexity.  Google Analytics can parse use case data by small form factors across devices.  Pay attention, mobile entrepreneurs.  Once thing VCs want to see from mobile products is use case data.  Build in Google Analytics and you've got a measuring tool.  Universal Analytics can measure apps running in Google App Engine.  Google Analytics can generate location reports down to some tiny level.  Successful apps grow to cross many platforms, like Angry Birds.

I missed the next Google talk due to a business lunch I had to attend but the final Googler was not to be missed.  This was a really hot chick who noted that Flash HTML 5 worked seamlessly across all devices.  I was more interested in whether she worked on devices, if you know what I mean.  She also said that keyword contextual targeting works in seasonal ad campaigns.  You marketing folks will have to make sense of that.  I'm just throwing it out there.  The reception afterwards was nice of Google but their hot chicks were too busy chatting up other attendees to spend quality time with Yours Truly.

SES held an expert roundtable forum where other gurus held forth on helpful marketing topics.  I hit the only table I needed:  blog marketing.  The dude I spoke with advised me to check Google Marketplace for my page rank and try to get it higher.  Uh, that's their apps market.  I may have failed to explain to the dude that I'm not an app developer, I'm just a content creator.  He said PPC works but it's costly.  That doesn't bother me because my ad budget is zero.  Moz.com has domain authority metrics I can use.  Getting inbound links really helps a Google page rank.  Reaching out to other bloggers for links and retweets reduces bounce rate (when a visitor goes back to Google and does a related search to click somewhere else).  Systematically building links is a serious project, so I will need to contact an expansive roster of finance bloggers to request links.  Blogdash and other blogger outreach platforms exists; some require pay while others are free to use.  I'm starting to see a theme developing.  Relationships with other high-traffic bloggers and aggregators should help drive traffic to my blog.  If that doesn't work, I can always post pictures of LOLcats with funny captions.  Everyone on the Web loves LOLcats.  

The second day of the show started with a keynote from Google's Patrick Thomas, who challenged us to design our own search engine just to see what kind of content we'd allow.  Google deals with content problems across several domains, including copyright infringement and hate speech.  Relevant search demands policy governance and the Internet's size demands search engine principles for controversial content.  Solving for scale means limiting manual decisions.  Search engines must also abide by country-specific laws on content.  I imagine China and the Islamic world would be particular headaches.  "Underground" information not readily found on Google still exists, like on the -chan series of sites.  I haven't visited the Internet's underground since my college days, and I have no intention of having a look around that neighborhood.  Using a "white list approach" of manually selected search results is difficult if you care about scale, and it was doom for AltaVista.  Difficult search decisions include content farms like black hat SEO boards.  Ahem, there's a big difference between black hat SEO and white hat SEO.  Black hat tactics get a site banned from search engines.  White hat tactics build a permanent audience for content.  Google's Knowledge Graph helps it overlay real-world context onto web-based algorithmic results so they can decide what not to index into web searches.  Google does write algorithms that drop the index rankings of bad merchants who get massive links simply because people badmouth them.  That's why I include positive notes in even my most sarcastic articles, nyah nyah nyah.  Google takes page speed loading into account in rankings because a faster speed provides a better user experience and is more deserving of a higher rank.  It's a good thing I use Google's Blogger platform.  The blog code must work wonderfully with the search code.

The only free seminar available to me, the free expo pass cheapskate, was the Page One Power talk on link building.  Google likes it when relevant sites and blogs link to your site.  There's that theme again.  It may very well be true if so many SEO pros are succeeding that way.  Get a strategy, find targets, and ask for links.  Blogging is vital to white hat link building.  I've got that one covered.  I won't give away all of the tips I collected from Page One Power's free seminar and expo floor talk but I will share one relevant principle.  A target link's value is based on two factors:  its domain authority (from Moz.com once again) and its relevance to a keyword you're trying to drive with your marketing strategy.  This is why links from professional associations matter in link building; they are highly relevant to a keyword.  This is also why data tied to Google's API matters; it determines whether link building from a given site will be useful.  Data from marketers showing search engine results pages (SERPs) for keywords shows which sites are hot and deserve link builders' attention.  Oh, BTW, Page One Power founder Jon Ball noted me scribbling furiously during his talks and said, "Those are good notes."  Yes, indeed they are.  I publish the general notes on my blog and use whatever's left to develop my own proprietary ideas.  See folks, the experts see me in action and admire my work.

I also want to address one more topic that I picked up from sitting through a couple of expo floor talks.  Google+ profiles can register for Google Authorship and be recognized with top ranks for good posts on specific subjects.  Use Google's guidelines for Authorship or their algorithm will penalize you.  I've also seen some helpful tips from Google's Official Webmaster Central Blog.  Experts at SES told me that I can enable it for a single blog article and even do so retroactively for articles published years ago.  One attendee mentioned that some research somewhere shows Google Authorship to be more effective in driving traffic than link building.  That settles it.  I'm pushing Google Authorship first and link building second but both will be part of my SEO strategy now.

The expo floor was filled with SEO marketers and other vendors.  They were fun to watch because I need to use some of the concepts they've mastered.  I sat through one interactive talk where a web marketing guru gave out hard-hitting critiques of our websites.  I let him critique my research website, Alfidi Capital.  He said my big gray block in the middle makes people think it's broken.  He thinks the whole site is cheesy and unprofessional and that people will click away.  He says my fonts don't match and my logo is in the center of the page.  He thinks it's really bad, and I told him I don't care at all.  He said he assumed I wanted people to invest with me after seeing my site, and I told him that is not at all what I want anyone to do.  I said my goal in business is to make people angry.  He said I succeeded in making him angry.  YES!  Mission accomplished!  I'm not changing a single thing about the Alfidi Capital main site because it looks exactly that way I want it to look.  It looks fine on mobile anyway, and mobile is the future.  The dude even gave me a free copy of his book on web page something or other.  Maybe I'll read it, or maybe I won't.  It can only help me if I can figure out how to make more people angry.

I made a few SEO resource discoveries on my own.  Digital Marketing Depot and HubSpot have tons of free tips and white papers.  Google codes its various algorithm updates as Panda, Penguin, and Phantom . . . mainly of interest to hard-core techies.  I'm just a blogger.  I don't care how code works.  I just want to publish mind-blowing articles and force-feed my thinking to a planet starving for genius.  SES San Francisco gave me what I needed to get there.

Full disclosure:  No position in GOOG at this time.  

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/17/13

Crowdsource that research
Feed KM with Big Data
Embed GIS

Crowdsourcing Citizen Science Into Big Data KM

Nobel Prize winner Dr. Peter Doherty told the NorCal World Affairs Council tonight about "Disease in a Borderless World."  He was there mainly to share excerpts from his most recent books but I picked up a couple of insights that I think can drive innovation.

Dr. Doherty mentioned that Audubon Society members' bird watching activity provides a useful data set to ornithology research.  This is a perfect example of how crowdsourcing can support citizen science initiatives that engage the broader public.  People may be more likely to believe scientific research if they helped assemble its supporting data.  Crowdsourced scientific research can be a major driver of public policy if it can demonstrate public acceptance of a contested topic like climate change.

One of Dr. Doherty's claims tonight may have been incorrect.  He said that infectious diseases make ineffective bioweapons.  I beg to differ.  The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention exists precisely because infectious diseases can be weaponized.  This 2003 EMBO report republished by the NCBI demonstrates that the world should be very concerned about bioterror from infectious diseases.  I'm clarifying this matter to demonstrate how even the scientific community has gaps in its knowledge base.

The scientific community's knowledge gaps can feed poor practices in the private sector.  Dr. Doherty said that breeding areas for chickens and water fowl should be kept separate because commingling the two can spread pathogens.  Dumping chicken manure effluent onto rice paddies as fertilizer is a poor farming technique because water fowl land in those paddies and carry off diseases.

I'll outline the start of a solution to such knowledge gaps.  Dr. Doherty mentioned the World Health Organization as one of the UN's most effective agencies.  It already has a data repository on infectious diseases and a Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) that monitors data from a collection of national influenza centers.  WHO's projects should be the knowledge management repository for the Big Data pushed from national organizations like the US Public Health Service, the National Institutes of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control.  WHO's ultimate goal should be the creation of embedded data maps that work the way I described in my recent blog post about geojournalism.  Embedded maps make knowledge management easy because data and analysis have a context that is specific to a given geography and time series.  Crowdsourced research projects will get citizens involved in creating these embedded data feeds.

I considered posting this article on Third Eye OSINT but decided that its value as a business proposition was more relevant than its value as an intelligence product.  The blending of GIS and text-formatted analysis creates a KM environment conducive to sharing among business and public policy analysts.  No longer will agribusiness be a silent enabler of contagion if it could access geo-specific warnings on separating chickens from wetlands or rice paddies.  The possibilities are endless.  So is my own genius.  

Forgetting FX Invest West Coast 2013

I attended last year's FX Invest West Coast thinking I could benefit from the thinking of serious currency investors.  The main thing I learned last year is that much of this finance sub-sector is driven by quant philosophies that have little to do with finding value in the real world.  I tried to register several times this year but never got a final confirmation to attend.  Maybe someone who attended last year took offense at what I wrote about stupid quant people wasting their time with Rube Goldberg trading mechanisms.  I stayed away today but here's my blind-item critique of the FX Invest West Coast 2013 agenda.  I have no idea what they actually said, or if they even showed up, because I wasn't there.  My comments below refer to publicly available information that relates to the topics of the scheduled program items.

CalPERS had something to say as an opener.  My blog article of what CalPERS had to say last year really laid into them so I can't imagine what they could have said today.  CalPERS lost my respect ever since they switched from activist investing in undervalued companies to doubling-down on illiquid, leveraged products.

FRBNY spoke on PVP settlement and replacement cost.  The New York Fed has all you need to know about their payment versus payment best practices in a 2010 white paper.  The standard definition of replacement cost means little in currency investing unless it applies the BIS best practices for reducing foreign exchange settlement risk.

BlackRock was supposed to say something about currency beta and whether active or passive investing in currency matters.  I just shake my head whenever somebody uses beta to measure anything other than a single security that belongs to a broad index.  IMHO anyone who uses active strategies in currency is merely gambling, not investing.  Currency is cash, and cash is for passive holdings until it finds an active use in some other asset.

A bunch of panels discussed BRIC currencies, ECB policies, and electronic trading platforms.  Folks, I've discussed all of those things on my blog and no so-called "expert" can hold a candle to my level of thinking.  I haven't blogged about swap execution facilities (SEFs) but I don't use them.  I suspect that the wide use of SEFs will eventually reduce the alpha that active currency managers can generate by allowing more traders to arbitrage away pricing anomalies.  It will be just like Reg D destroying the alpha available to managed futures traders.  Kiss those big bonuses goodbye, quants.

The Indian rupee (INR) has done badly this year.  No kidding.  Quants need to stop trying to day-trade this currency and start looking at India's macroeconomic fundamentals.  India's central bank is considering radical plans to play games with its gold reserves in an attempt to stabilize the rupee and India's current account deficits.  Raising short-term interest rates is the right thing to do.  You'd think quants would see that as a buy-and-hold opportunity, but quants don't think that way.

One speaker showed an interest in discussing emerging market currencies as an inflation hedge.  I've discussed that on my blog but I only like currencies from countries with low debt-to-GDP ratios and a strong rule of law.  Throwing emerging currencies into the mix just won't do it for me.  You'll end up owning currencies from Argentina, Venezuela, and other places where demagogues confiscate wealth and hyperinflate the economy.  No thanks.  I would have been squirming in my seat if I had to listen to a formal talk on the glory of EM currencies.

The one topic I might have liked would have been currencies as alternatives to bonds.  My currency ETFs are paying me a better yield than my US dollar cash holdings.  Like I said above, only low debts and strong rule of law matter in finding currencies to use as hedges or income alternatives.  Once hyperinflation destroys the US dollar, my currency ETFs will enable me to buy US dollar assets cheaply.  Currency is cash, and foreign currency in a hyperinflated economy enables wealth accumulation.

This FX Invest West Coast conference is still in progress as I'm writing this article.  I didn't miss much besides free food and coffee.  It may be just as well that I sit this conference out if they can't have me as a speaker.  I would probably offend everyone in the room with my strongly held belief in the limited portfolio role for currency strategies.  Currency is cash, and cash is productive in only limited ways:  investing in assets or paying expenses.  Currency can also hedge cash exposures but those exposures must be committed to something serious.  I have lots of cash sitting in my portfolio because not many assets in the capital markets are attractively priced and I have very few expenses to pay.  I'm too cheap and too smart to be of use to many of the numbskulls in the professional currency investing circuit.  It's their loss and they'll never know it.  

Monday, September 16, 2013

The Haiku of Finance for 09/16/13

No confirmation
Trade show does not answer me
They must be stupid

The Arrival Of Geojournalism

Tonight the Commonwealth Club asked "Does The Environment Matter?"  I was there.  It really should have asked whether journalism matters.  Traditional news media have been in decline for years.  Newspapers can't compete with the advertising reach of online media.  I think too many journalists are still enthralled with old-fashioned media doing old-fashioned beat reporting.  The new beats are all online covered by bloggers like Yours Truly.  The number of full-time journalists has declined but the amount of informed commentary available online has exploded.  Journalism is morphing into a concept that fuses data analysis, geospatial mapping, and time-series reporting.  This is the realm of the "geojournalist."

The geojournalist uses GIS tools to embed text and data within photos and maps.  This requires skills in data mining and content curation that aren't taught in journalism schools.  I think an open-source knowledge management practitioner (ahem, Yours Truly once again) qualifies as a geojournalist.  It also calls for some mobile media savvy.  I noticed one hot journalist babe at this CW Club talk tonight use her smartphone to record one of the panelist's answers.  Old-fashioned note-taking will soon give way to digital tablet notations for geojournalists who embed their stories into maps on the spot.

Some environmental media sites are doing geojournalism well.  InfoAmazonia tracks reports by map location within the amazon rain forest.  ClimateCommons adjusts US temperature data for anomalies like industrial emissions.  Internews teaches social media techniques to aspiring geojournalists in developing nations.  Interdisciplinary academic initiatives like the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication need to adapt geojournalist techniques if they want to be heard.

Other digital media can adapt to the new realities of crowdsourcing and crowdfunding.  Journalists are IMHO too dependent on foundation grants and PBS money.  I've seen some filmmakers pitching ideas for short films on crowdfunding sites.  This could work for investigative journalists making documentary films that can embed into GIS maps if geojournalists think like entrepreneurs.  They need an elevator pitch to get donors' attention and market data on the size of an audience for their project.  Market data for short films is easy to find with view counts for similar content on YouTube.  I say the Society for Environmental Journalists should teach startup thinking to geojournalists.  Just ask me how to do it and I'll show you if the price is right.